Group E · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Ivory Coast
1:0
Ecuador

أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass

Live descriptive stats

Ivory CoastEcuador
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Ivory Coast0.660.73+0.07
Ecuador0.950.54−0.41

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
6
6
Shots on target
1
0
Possession (%)
45%
55%
Corners
2
0
Fouls
8
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Ivory Coast's possession game against Ecuador's transition approach. Ecuador will concede the ball willingly and look to strike when Ivory Coast commit numbers forward. Ivory Coast will expect to hold 58% possession. Ecuador need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Ivory Coast's possession game (58% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Franck Kessié's 8.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Ecuador's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Enner Valencia. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Ivory Coast or Ecuador.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 1
Date:
14 Jun
Availability

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.

Ecuador

Ecuador come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Ivory Coast and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

مباشرإحصاءات وصفية واحتمالية فوز مباشرة بتأخير · تتحدَّث كل ~30 ثانية

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Ivory Coast (above the line)Ecuador (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 90' · A. Diallo

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Ivory Coast minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Ivory CoastEcuador
  • Yellow cardS. Fofana· RoughingS. Fofana is booked — Roughing.28'
  • Yellow cardF. Kessie· TrippingF. Kessie is booked — Tripping.38'
  • Yellow cardG. Doue· TrippingG. Doue is booked — Tripping.40'
  • 56'SubstitutionA. Minda· N. AnguloEcuador change: N. Angulo.
  • SubstitutionE. Wahi· A. BonnyIvory Coast change: A. Bonny.56'
  • SubstitutionB. Toure· A. DialloIvory Coast change: A. Diallo.56'
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Yeboah· A. PreciadoEcuador change: A. Preciado.
  • 62'SubstitutionA. Franco· J. PorozoEcuador change: J. Porozo.
  • 73'Yellow cardJ. Porozo· HoldingJ. Porozo is booked — Holding.
  • SubstitutionN. Pepe· C. Inao OulaiIvory Coast change: C. Inao Oulai.77'
  • SubstitutionS. Fofana· I. SangareIvory Coast change: I. Sangare.77'
  • 77'SubstitutionE. Valencia· K. RodriguezEcuador change: K. Rodriguez.
  • SubstitutionG. Doue· O. KossounouIvory Coast change: O. Kossounou.89'
  • GoalA. Diallo· W. SingoA. Diallo scores for Ivory Coast.90'

Player involvement

Ivory Coast

A. Diallo56' Off · 90' Goal
AW. Singo90' Assist
S. Fofana28' Yellow card · 77' On
F. Kessie38' Yellow card
G. Doue40' Yellow card · 89' On

Ecuador

J. Porozo62' Off · 73' Yellow card
نموذج ما قبل المباراةمُجمَّد قبل الانطلاق

Pre-match forecast

Ivory Coast win
21.3%
Draw
33.9%
Ecuador win
44.8%
Ivory Coast
0.66
expected
goals
Ecuador
0.95

الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    20.8%
  • 0–1
    18.2%
  • 1–1
    13.3%
  • 1–0
    12.5%
  • 0–2
    8.9%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 0
Ivory Coast win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Ivory Coast win· realised
    17.9%
  • Draw
    29.8%
  • Ecuador win
    52.2%
Brier score
1.035
Log loss
1.719
xG (final / predicted)
0.73 / 0.66 · Ivory Coast
0.54 / 1.07 · Ecuador
P(realised outcome)
17.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة الكامل →

كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.