Group E · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Ivory Coast's possession game against Ecuador's transition approach. Ecuador will concede the ball willingly and look to strike when Ivory Coast commit numbers forward. Ivory Coast will expect to hold 58% possession. Ecuador need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Ivory Coast's possession game (58% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Franck Kessié's 8.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Ecuador's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Enner Valencia. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 14 Jun
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.
Ecuador
Ecuador come in at close to full strength.
Ivory Coast and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Ivory Coast minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardS. Fofana· RoughingS. Fofana is booked — Roughing.28'
- Yellow cardF. Kessie· TrippingF. Kessie is booked — Tripping.38'
- Yellow cardG. Doue· TrippingG. Doue is booked — Tripping.40'
- 56'SubstitutionA. Minda· N. AnguloEcuador change: N. Angulo.
- SubstitutionE. Wahi· A. BonnyIvory Coast change: A. Bonny.56'
- SubstitutionB. Toure· A. DialloIvory Coast change: A. Diallo.56'
- 62'SubstitutionJ. Yeboah· A. PreciadoEcuador change: A. Preciado.
- 62'SubstitutionA. Franco· J. PorozoEcuador change: J. Porozo.
- 73'Yellow cardJ. Porozo· HoldingJ. Porozo is booked — Holding.
- SubstitutionN. Pepe· C. Inao OulaiIvory Coast change: C. Inao Oulai.77'
- SubstitutionS. Fofana· I. SangareIvory Coast change: I. Sangare.77'
- 77'SubstitutionE. Valencia· K. RodriguezEcuador change: K. Rodriguez.
- SubstitutionG. Doue· O. KossounouIvory Coast change: O. Kossounou.89'
- GoalA. Diallo· W. SingoA. Diallo scores for Ivory Coast.90'
Player involvement
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–020.8%
- 0–118.2%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–28.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Ivory Coast win· realised17.9%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win52.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.