Group E · Matchday 1
← Vor-Spiel-PrognoseLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Ivory Coast win17.9%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win52.2%
Analysis
The model gives Ecuador a moderate advantage at 52.2% versus 17.9% for Ivory Coast (draw 29.8%). The Elo gap is substantial at 257 points in Ecuador's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group E fixture with advance probabilities of 72.9% for Ivory Coast and 95.7% for Ecuador.
Tactical matchup
Ivory Coast (possession dominant) meet Ecuador (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Ivory Coast typically dominate possession (58%) compared to Ecuador's 47% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Ivory Coast need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Ecuador will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Franck Kessié (P(scores) 8.4%) against Kevin Rodríguez (3.5%) — their impact could prove decisive. Ecuador play a more direct game while Ivory Coast build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Enner Valencia, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 1
Both teams have minor availability concerns ahead of this match; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Ivory Coast v Ecuador plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.