Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group L · Matchday 1

EnglandvsCroatia

·15:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28Model 1.0.0Selectie England →Selectie Croatia →Live tracker →Onderlinge confrontatie →

Onderlinge geschiedenis

Date	Competition	Venue	Score	Result	xG
13 Jun 2021	UEFA Euro	HLondon	1–0	W	0.7–0.3
18 Nov 2018	UEFA Nations League	HLondon	2–1	W	—
12 Oct 2018	UEFA Nations League	ARijeka	0–0	D	—
11 Jul 2018	FIFA World Cup	NMoscow	1–2	L	0.6–2.1
9 Sep 2009	FIFA World Cup qualification	HLondon	5–1	W	—
10 Sep 2008	FIFA World Cup qualification	AZagreb	4–1	W	—

England vs Croatia, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from England's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral; xG where the upstream dataset covers the match). See all 11 meetings →

Latest news & match context

Team news

“I don’t care” – Michael Owen suggests radical tactic to prevent issue that could “kill” England at World Cup · CaughtOffside · 11 Jun
England fans given stern warning about drinking inside cars while passengers at first World Cup game · Daily Mirror — Football · 11 Jun
What have we learned from England's World Cup training camp? · Sky Sports — Football · 11 Jun

Match conditions

Stage:: Group L · Matchday 1

Both England and Croatia enter this fixture with several squad members listed as doubtful; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

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CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

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The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how England v Croatia plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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