Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group L · Matchday 1

EnglandvsCroatia

·15:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28England kadrosu →Croatia kadrosu →Canlı takip →Karşılıklı istatistikler →

Karşılıklı geçmiş

Date	Competition	Venue	Score	Result	xG
13 Jun 2021	UEFA Euro	HLondon	1–0	W	0.7–0.3
18 Nov 2018	UEFA Nations League	HLondon	2–1	W	—
12 Oct 2018	UEFA Nations League	ARijeka	0–0	D	—
11 Jul 2018	FIFA World Cup	NMoscow	1–2	L	0.6–2.1
9 Sep 2009	FIFA World Cup qualification	HLondon	5–1	W	—
10 Sep 2008	FIFA World Cup qualification	AZagreb	4–1	W	—

England vs Croatia, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from England's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral; xG where the upstream dataset covers the match). See all 11 meetings →

Latest news & match context

Team news

New England’s summer of soccer begins with World Cup matches in Foxborough · Ocean State Media · 11 Jun
World Cup 2026 today: Live updates, latest news as England beat Costa Rica - June 11 · ESPN · 11 Jun
Sir Geoff Hurst hits out at 'nonsense' England World Cup myth as Three Lions prepare for opener · Daily Mirror — Football · 11 Jun
Sorry mum! Declan Rice reveals his MOTHER gave him a telling off after England star was left badly sunburnt for his World Cup photoshoot · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun

Match conditions

Stage:: Group L · Matchday 1

Both England and Croatia enter this fixture with several squad members listed as doubtful; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

England win
50.3%
Draw
26.4%
Croatia win
23.2%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how England v Croatia plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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