Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group E · Matchday 1

GermanyvsCuraçao

·12:00 local

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Germany or Curaçao.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 1

Both teams have multiple players listed as doubtful for this fixture, including a key forward for one side. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Germany win
    83.5%
  • Draw
    13.1%
  • Curaçao win
    3.4%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Curaçao #82 in the world; the model ranks them #40 in this tournament field, 42 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Germany v Curaçao plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Hoe dit wordt berekend. Alle doelpuntenprocessuitvoer deelt dezelfde Dixon-Coles-fit. Zie methodologie.

Stand per 2026-05-28