Egypt

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

CAF·Groep G·FIFA #34

R16 contender

Pragmatic side missing Mohamed Salah through injury, with an Al Ahly-heavy spine.

Rivaal
Belgium (#8)
Sleutel
Omar Marmoush (FW)
Share this cardSave image

Final squad announced · Egypt · 2026-05-21

Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗
1

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

Egypt carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (29th of 48). A key storyline is the fitness of Mohamed Salah — thigh problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, they are projected at 67.8% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Egypt under Hossam Hassan play a pragmatic game with 51% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.8). They generate a high volume of shots (13.7 per 90).

Path to success

In Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, Egypt are projected at 67.8% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 30.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Egypt play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing the fitness of Mohamed Salah could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Egypt broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability29th in field
1689Elo ratingRanked 51st globally
13.7Shots per 90top quartile (8th of 48)
27.3%Tournament goal probability — Omar MarmoushTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
2.4 yearsManager tenureHossam Hassan
67.8%Group stage advance probabilityGroup G

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Pragmatic · style profile from 7 recent matches

Press
21.8
41
Build-up
6.8
69
Directness
6
39
Width (proxy)
431.3
46
Tempo
8.7
51
Set-piece reliance
17.3
83

What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.

Percentiles position Egypt against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group G finish · Egypt

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    13.1%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    28.2%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    37.3%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    21.3%

Stage progression · Egypt

, 50,000 sims
  1. 67.2%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 30.4%R16Round of 16
  3. 9.6%QFQuarter-final
  4. 2.6%SFSemi-final
  5. 0.8%FFinal
  6. 0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Egypt

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Switzerland16%
Canada15%
Turkey10%

R16

Round of 16

Argentina23%
Portugal12%
Colombia9%

QF

Quarter-final

Argentina17%
Spain17%
Portugal12%

SF

Semi-final

Brazil19%
France11%
England10%

F

Final

Argentina17%
Spain16%
Germany8%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →
2

De selectie

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Mohamed El ShenawyCaps-driven↗Al Ahly
75c—0.62
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Ramy RabiaCaps-drivenAl Ain
43c—0.33
DF
Mohamed HanyCaps-driven↘Al Ahly
40c—0.44
DF
Ahmed Abou El FotouhCaps-driven↘Zamalek
38c—0.27
DF
Mohamed AbdelmonemCaps-driven↘Nice
34c—0.20
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Hamdy FathyCaps-drivenAl-Wakrah
62c1assists0.44
MF
Marwan AttiaCaps-drivenAl Ahly
32c4assists0.44
MF
Mohanad LasheenCaps-drivenPyramids
21c0assists0.36
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Omar Marmoush↗Manchester City
47c11goals0.92
FW
Mohamed SalahRecoveringCaps-driven↘Liverpool
116c67goals0.74
FW
ZizoCaps-driven→Al Ahly
61c5goals0.52
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (3)
PlayerStat
GK
Mostafa ShobeirRecoveringRating-drivenAl Ahly★ Likely first sub
7c—0.38
GK
Mohamed AlaaEl Gouna★ Likely first sub
0c—0.00
GK
El Mahdy SolimanZamalek★ Likely first sub
0c—0.00
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Yasser IbrahimAl Ahly★ Likely first sub
15c—0.27
DF
Hossam AbdelmaguidCaps-drivenZamalek★ Likely first sub
12c—0.14
DF
Karim HafezCaps-drivenPyramids★ Likely first sub
7c—0.00
DF
Tarek AlaaCaps-drivenZED
1c—0.00
Midfielders (4)
PlayerStat
MF
Emam AshourRecoveringCaps-driven→Al Ahly★ Likely first sub
27c5assists0.40
MF
DongaRating-drivenAl-Najma★ Likely first sub
11c0assists0.34
MF
Mahmoud SaberCaps-drivenZED★ Likely first sub
14c0assists0.13
MF
Mostafa ZikoPyramids
0c—0.00
Forwards (4)
PlayerStat
FW
TrézéguetRecoveringCaps-driven↘Al Ahly★ Likely first subimpact 58/100
94c23goals0.33
FW
Ibrahim AdelNordsjælland★ Likely first sub
22c3goals0.39
FW
Haissem HassanCaps-drivenOviedo★ Likely first sub
2c0goals0.00
FW
Aqtay AbdallahENPPI
0c0goals0.00
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.250
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
75%
3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Nice1
  • Arsenal1
  • Eintracht Frankfurt1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Omar MarmoushStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.71gap to repl.
  2. Mohamed SalahWingerLikely cover: Ibrahim Adel · 0.39Nordsjælland0.35gap to repl.
  3. Mohamed El ShenawyGoalkeeperLikely cover: Mostafa Shobeir · 0.38Al Ahly0.24gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 15, 2026BelgiumSeattle, United States
2Jun 21, 2026New ZealandVancouver, Canada
3Jun 26, 2026IranSeattle, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers Egypt →

4

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago
Out injuredMohamed Salah

Thigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.96 — would have been a likely starter.

Club core

5 of 23 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al Ahly — a single-club spine on the international side.

Teen starterwp-hamza-abdelkarim-2008-01-01

18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

League pedigree

Only 2 of 23 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

5

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Pragmatic

Attack

Attack rating0.6032nd/48
Shots per match13.78th/48
Chance quality0.13712th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.8128th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5321st/48

GK: Mohamed El Shenawy

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share17.3%7th/48
Penalty conversion75.0%7th/48
Penalty save rate27.5%6th/48

Style

Possession51.1%20th/48
Press intensity21.824th/48
Directness6.025th/48
Crossing volume431.322nd/48
Long ball volume33.026th/48
Build-up length6.813th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,76217th/48
Club familiarity0.00026th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored9 goals · 102 shots
Conceded12 goals · 79 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Belgium
Win17.1%
Draw25.8%
Loss57.1%
Expected goals for0.67
Expected goals against1.55
Likeliest score1-0 (16.3%)
Both teams score39.0%
Clean sheet21.3%
Full fixture analysis →
vs New Zealand
Win47.9%
Draw29.0%
Loss23.1%
Expected goals for1.17
Expected goals against0.45
Likeliest score1-0 (22.7%)
Both teams score25.4%
Clean sheet63.8%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Iran
Win27.7%
Draw29.4%
Loss42.9%
Expected goals for0.83
Expected goals against0.97
Likeliest score0-0 (17.2%)
Both teams score35.6%
Clean sheet37.8%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10
Egypt — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 10 snapshotsEgypt trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1689.0 to 1689.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).Elo rating16791686169216992026-05-22 · Elo 1689.02026-06-06 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1689.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.4%0.8%1.3%2026-05-22 · 0.1% (CI <0.1%–0.2%)2026-06-06 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · <0.1% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (−0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.5%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10)

Egypt trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1689.0 to 1689.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record5W · 3D · 2L
Goals13–8
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31ASpain0–0DFriendly
2026-03-27ASaudi Arabia4–0WFriendly
2026-01-17NNigeria0–0DAfrican Cup of Nations
2026-01-14NSenegal0–1LAfrican Cup of Nations
2026-01-10NIvory Coast3–2WAfrican Cup of Nations
2026-01-05NBenin3–1WAfrican Cup of Nations
2025-12-29NAngola0–0DAfrican Cup of Nations
2025-12-26NSouth Africa1–0WAfrican Cup of Nations
2025-12-22NZimbabwe2–1WAfrican Cup of Nations
2025-12-09NJordan0–3LArab Cup

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
Belgium43-0-12022 — Win (2–1) · Friendly
New Zealand32-1-02024 — Win (1–0) · FIFA Series
Iran11-0-02000 — Win (1–1) · Friendly

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
African Cup of Nations20264 matches2-1-1
  • Same head coach (Hossam Hassan) since 2024
  • 7/12 of current pool (58%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2018Group stage0-0-3
  • New head coach since then — now Hossam Hassan (appointed 2024)
  • 3/12 of current pool (25%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Morocco · Afcon 2017

    Exited at the quarter-final

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1670) and group draw.

  • Algeria · Afcon 2015

    Exited at the quarter-final

  • Tunisia · Afcon 2000

    Finished third