Three Round of 32 matches. Two penalty shootouts. One stoppage-time winner. And the tournament's biggest upset so far.
Paraguay, who lost 1-4 to the USA in the group stage and scored just 2 goals across 3 matches, knocked out four-time world champions Germany on penalties. Brazil survived a determined Japan side thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's 96th-minute winner. Morocco equalized against the Netherlands in the 91st minute and won in a shootout.
The knockout round is two days old and already nothing is safe.
Germany 1-1 Paraguay (Paraguay win 4-3 on penalties)
Model: Germany 52.5%, Draw 27.6%, Paraguay 20.0%. Result: Draw at 90 minutes, Paraguay through on penalties. Wrong directional call.
The model had Germany as modest favourites. The Elo gap was 103 points, the squad composite gap the widest of any Day 2 match (0.657 vs 0.257). Germany had scored 10 goals in their first two group matches. Paraguay had scored 2 in three.
None of it mattered.
Julio Enciso opened the scoring in the 42nd minute with a header from Matias Galarza's cross. Paraguay, a team built on defensive pragmatism throughout the group stage, had taken the lead against a side that beat Curacao 7-1 eight days earlier.
Kai Havertz equalized eight minutes into the second half, glancing a header from Florian Wirtz's delivery from the flank. Germany pressed for a winner. In extra time, Jonathan Tah headed home from a corner, and Gillette Stadium erupted. But VAR intervened: Waldemar Anton had impeded Paraguay goalkeeper Orlando Gill. The goal was ruled out. Germany's celebrations evaporated.
The penalty shootout was devastating for Germany. Gill saved from Havertz and Nick Woltemade. Then Tah, the man whose extra-time header was chalked off, blazed his spot-kick over the bar. Jose Canale stepped up and converted the winner. Paraguay are through to face France or Sweden. Germany are going home.
This is Germany's first penalty shootout loss at a World Cup. They had won 6 of 7 career shootouts, the best record of any team in the tournament. Their shootout pedigree was supposed to be the safety net if the match went the distance. Instead, it was the method of their elimination.
Brier score: 0.840. The model's worst R32 prediction so far. It favoured Germany at 52.5%; the 90-minute result was a draw (27.6% probability). The Elo-based model cannot see what happened on the pitch in Boston: a team with 2 group-stage goals that refused to break, a goalkeeper who saved two penalties, a VAR decision that erased what would have been a German winner.
The narrative is hard to overstate. Paraguay finished Group D with 4 points and a -2 goal difference. Their opening match was a 1-4 loss to the USA. They beat Turkey 1-0 and drew Australia 0-0. They qualified as one of the eight best third-placed teams with the weakest attacking output of any remaining side. Now they have eliminated a four-time World Cup champion.
Brazil 2-1 Japan
Model: Brazil 49.5%, Draw 27.6%, Japan 22.9%. Result: Brazil win. Correct directional call.
Brazil were marginal favourites, barely above a coin flip. Japan had earned that closeness: they drew the Netherlands 2-2 and Sweden 1-1 in the group stage, beat Tunisia 4-0, and entered the Round of 32 with a tactical system designed to frustrate possession-heavy teams.
It worked for 29 minutes. Kaishu Sano breezed past Casemiro on the edge of the box and scored, putting Japan ahead with their first knockout-stage goal of the tournament. Japan's low block snapped into place. Brazil pressed. Japan absorbed.
Casemiro, the man beaten for the opener, provided the equalizer in the 56th minute. He headed home from a cross at the far post. Redemption.
The match appeared to be heading for extra time. Then, in the 6th minute of stoppage time, Bruno Guimaraes played a ball through to Gabriel Martinelli, who had come off the bench in the second half. Martinelli's shot was palmed by Japan goalkeeper Zion Suzuki onto the inside of the post. The ball rolled in. Brazil had stolen it.
Brier score: 0.384. A correct directional call on a narrow prediction. The model's second-best R32 score after Canada (0.368). Brazil face Norway or Ivory Coast in the Round of 16 in New Jersey on July 5.
For Japan, the exit is heartbreaking. They had the lead, the defensive shape, and 60 minutes of containment working exactly as planned. One moment of stoppage-time quality ended their tournament. Japan's 2026 run (5 points, 7 goals scored, draws against the Netherlands and Sweden) was the most impressive group-stage campaign from an Asian team at this World Cup.
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (Morocco win 3-2 on penalties)
Model: Netherlands 34.8%, Draw 31.8%, Morocco 33.4%. Result: Draw at 90 minutes, Morocco through on penalties.
This was the model's closest three-way call of the Round of 32. Netherlands, Morocco, and the draw were separated by less than 2 percentage points. The model essentially said: nobody knows. It was right.
Morocco controlled the first 70 minutes in Guadalajara. The Atlas Lions pressed, created chances, and looked the more dangerous side. Then Cody Gakpo scored against the run of play in the 72nd minute, the kind of individual quality that can steal a knockout match.
Morocco did not fold. Issa Diop headed an equalizer in the first minute of stoppage time. Gakpo's goal had stood for 19 minutes. The match went to extra time, and then penalties.
The shootout was chaotic. Morocco's Neil El Aynaoui hit the crossbar. The Netherlands' Justin Kluivert hit the post. Quinten Timber missed wide. Achraf Hakimi hit the post. The decisive sequence came at the end: Yassine Bounou saved Crysencio Summerville's kick, and Ismael Saibari blasted home the winner.
Morocco are through to face Canada in Houston on July 4. The Netherlands, who reached the World Cup quarter-finals in 2022, are out. Their last two World Cup exits have both come on penalties.
Brier score: 0.698. Not a clean prediction, but the model's framing was honest: this was a three-way coin flip, and it landed on the draw.
Model scorecard: R32 after 4 matches
| Match | Prediction | 90-min result | Call | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada 1-0 South Africa | Canada 50.9% | Away win | Correct | 0.368 |
| Germany 1-1 Paraguay (4-3 pens) | Germany 52.5% | Draw | Wrong | 0.840 |
| Brazil 2-1 Japan | Brazil 49.5% | Home win | Correct | 0.384 |
| Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (3-2 pens) | NED 34.8% / Draw 31.8% / MAR 33.4% | Draw | Coin flip | 0.698 |
Average R32 Brier: 0.573. Two correct directional calls (Canada, Brazil), one clear miss (Germany), and one match the model correctly identified as unpredictable.
The group-stage average Brier was 0.557 across 72 matches. The R32 average is worse, driven almost entirely by the Germany miss. Knockout matches are harder: the stakes compress team behaviour, penalty shootouts introduce a 50/50 coin flip the 90-minute model does not account for, and defensive discipline (Paraguay's defining trait) is exactly the kind of tactical commitment Elo struggles to measure.
Today: France vs Sweden, Ivory Coast vs Norway
Two more Round of 32 matches today.
| Match | Venue | UTC | H% | D% | A% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast vs Norway | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | 19:00 | 29.2 | 29.7 | 41.1 |
| France vs Sweden | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | 22:00 | 57.0 | 26.0 | 17.0 |
France are the model's strongest remaining team (Elo 2093). They finished the group stage with a perfect 9 points and are 57% favourites against Sweden. The winner faces Paraguay in the Round of 16.
Ivory Coast vs Norway is the day's closer call. Norway are slight favourites at 41.1%, but the draw probability (29.7%) is nearly as high. The winner faces Brazil.
Bracket implications
After yesterday's results, the top half of the bracket has its first surprise. Paraguay, the team that lost 4-1 to the USA in the group stage, will face either France (1st in Elo) or Sweden (15th) in the Round of 16. A Paraguay vs France match would be the widest Elo gap of any Round of 16 fixture.
Morocco's path continues through Canada (Round of 16, July 4), then potentially England or DR Congo. Morocco reached the semi-finals in 2022 and have the tournament experience to make another deep run.
Brazil's path runs through Norway or Ivory Coast (Round of 16), then potentially England in the quarter-final. Their route is one of the more favourable draws for a top-8 team, provided they avoid another stoppage-time scare.
Probabilities are from the model run frozen before each match's kickoff. The Netherlands vs Morocco predictions (34.8%/31.8%/33.4%) are from the June 29 model run. Draw probabilities represent the 90-minute result; knockout matches proceed to extra time and penalties if level. Brier scores grade the 90-minute outcome. The model publishes probabilities, not recommendations. Full methodology. Full Terms of Use.