Brazil
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0CONMEBOL·グループ C·FIFA #5
High-pressing side led by Gabriel Jesus.
直近のフォーメーション: 4-2-3-1 （5試合中4試合）
- ライバル
- Morocco (#11)
- 注目
- Raphinha (FW)
Final squad announced · Brazil · 2026-06-05
Source: Kursiv Media Казахстан: последние новости Казахстана и мира ↗WC2026 results
トーナメントの見通し
Analysis
Brazil are among the tournament frontrunners — the model rates them at 9.5%, 3rd in the field. Watch for Endrick — 19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group C alongside Morocco, Scotland, Haiti, they are projected at 99.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti play a high press game, holding 58% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.1) and build patiently through midfield with 7.2 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (16.5 per 90).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group C with Morocco, Scotland, Haiti, where the model projects a 70.9% chance of finishing top and 99.3% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (69.7%), quarter-finals (47.3%), semi-finals (30.7%), the final (17.0%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
Brazil need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.
Controversial take
The model rates Brazil significantly higher than their FIFA ranking implies — a gap of 3.2 percentage points. This reflects the model's assessment of underlying squad quality and recent form that the ranking system may lag behind.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
High press · style profile from 14 recent matches
What to watch: a slower, more circuitous attack.
Percentiles position Brazil against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group C finish · Brazil
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 63.4%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 27.3%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 8.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 0.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Brazil
, 100,000 sims- 98.0%AdvAdvance from group
- 73.7%R16Round of 16
- 54.8%QFQuarter-final
- 37.3%SFSemi-final
- 21.8%FFinal
- 12.9%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Brazil
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsスカッド
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.143
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 43%
- 3 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Chelsea1
- Paris Saint Germain1
- Juventus1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Bruno GuimarãesCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.67gap to repl.
- Lucas PaquetáAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.45gap to repl.
- CasemiroDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Fabinho · 0.44Al-Ittihad0.42gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
グループステージ日程
Group-stage schedule
対戦成績
ストーリー
Storylines
Updated 49 days agoModel's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #4 of all players.
19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Conceded only 0.55 xG per match across 6 recent internationals — #4 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Squad averages 1.76 xG per match across club football last season — #5 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (13 of 24 players matched to a known club).
フォームと実績
Video analysis: Brazil
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 17 players observed, 6 events tracked.
Demonstrated individual brilliance by scoring a well-taken free-kick and a powerful long-range goal.
2 goalsPlayer ratings (17)
8Neymar1 app · 2 events2 goals8▼
Demonstrated individual brilliance by scoring a well-taken free-kick and a powerful long-range goal.
8Matheus Cunha1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored the crucial opening goal with excellent anticipation and predatory instincts.
8Ederson Moraes1 app · 1 events1 save8▼
Made a vital save in the second half, ensuring his team maintained a clean sheet.
8Vinicius Jr.2 apps97▼
Scored two crucial goals, including the opener, and was a relentless attacking force throughout the match.
8Bruno Guimarães1 app8▼
Delivered a crucial assist for Brazil's third goal, showcasing excellent vision and precise passing from midfield.
8Gabriel Martinelli1 app8▼
Scored a decisive goal with a close-range finish, contributing to Brazil's dominant performance.
8Vini Jr.1 app8▼
Scored a penalty with a powerful shot and showcased good dribbling ability, adding to Brazil's attacking threat.
7Raphinha1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Created an attacking opportunity with a shot on target that was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.
7Martinelli2 apps · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)68▼
7Ruan1 app7▼
Displayed good attacking intent, creating opportunities and forcing the opposition goalkeeper into saves.
7Alisson2 apps77▼
Made two crucial saves against McTominay, ensuring Brazil maintained their clean sheet and secured the victory.
7Casemiro2 apps68▼
Played a standard role in midfield, contributing to ball retention and defensive stability without notable individual highlights.
6Neymar Jr1 app6▼
Was involved in several attacking movements but ultimately failed to convert any chances.
6Neymar Jr.1 app6▼
Played a limited role as a late substitute, without enough time to make a significant impact on the game.
6Richarlison1 app6▼
Registered an attempt from distance that was saved, contributing to Brazil's offensive pressure.
6Cunha1 app6▼
Had an early shot on target but did not contribute further to the scoreline.
6Rayan1 app6▼
Had a shot on goal that was deflected, showing some attacking intent in his limited time on the pitch.
Match observations
- gs-005The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams demonstrating solid defensive organisation.
- gs-005Neither side managed to break the deadlock, resulting in a goalless draw.
- gs-005Attacking opportunities were limited, with both goalkeepers making key saves to maintain their clean sheets.
- gs-029Brazil secured a comfortable 3-0 victory over Haiti in a match where they largely dominated proceedings.
- gs-029The Brazilian side showcased their attacking prowess, creating numerous opportunities and converting three of them, though two other goals were ruled out for offside.
- gs-029Haiti's defence, particularly their goalkeeper, put in a resilient performance, making several crucial interventions to prevent a larger deficit.
- gs-053Brazil secured a comfortable 3-0 victory over Scotland in Miami. The match saw Brazil's attacking prowess on full display, with quick goals setting the tone early on.
- gs-053Scotland struggled to contain Brazil's fluid offensive movements and individual skill, particularly in the first half.
- gs-053Despite the scoreline, Scotland's goalkeeper, Angus Gunn, made several notable saves to limit Brazil's advantage.
- r16-003Brazil dominated possession and created numerous chances throughout the match, particularly in the first half.
- r16-003Norway, however, was highly effective on the counter-attack, primarily through the prolific finishing of Haaland.
- r16-003The match was characterized by Brazil's attacking pressure and Norway's resilient defense, anchored by their goalkeeper, and clinical efficiency in front of goal.
- r32-004The match between Brazil and Japan concluded with a 2-1 victory for Brazil.
- r32-004The atmosphere in the Japanese fan zone was one of tension and disappointment, reflecting their team's loss.
- r32-004In contrast, Brazilian supporters were seen in a state of euphoria, celebrating their team's triumph.
Statistical profile
High PressAttack
Defence
GK: Alisson
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 14 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Brazil trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1984.0 to 1984.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 10.5% to 9.1% (−1.5pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NCroatia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-26 | NFrance | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NTunisia | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | NSenegal | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AJapan | 2–3 | L | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-10 | ASouth Korea | 5–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | ABolivia | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | HChile | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | HParaguay | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AEcuador | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 10 | 8-2-0 | 2011 — Win (2–0) · Friendly |
| Haiti | 4 | 4-0-0 | 2026 — Win (3–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Morocco | 4 | 2-1-1 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa América | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 1-3-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2003 | 5 matches | 3-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Argentina · World Cup 2018
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2045) and group draw.
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