Group B · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Canada
6:0
Qatar

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Live descriptive stats

CanadaQatar
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Canada1.884.11+2.23
Qatar0.750.18−0.57

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
30
2
Shots on target
10
0
Possession (%)
79%
21%
Corners
18
1
Fouls
8
10
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
2

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Qatar defend deep and give Canada the ball. The question is whether Canada's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Canada's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Qatar's deeper build-up (PPDA 35.0) creates a clear territory question: can Canada force errors high up, or will Qatar play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Jonathan David's 12.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Qatar's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Qatar travel 11,697km while Canada are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Hassan Al-Haydos. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Canada or Qatar.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 2
Date:
18 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Rest differential: Canada have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Qatar. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Availability

Canada

Canada come in at close to full strength.

Qatar

Qatar come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Canada and Qatar both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Canada (above the line)Qatar (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 16' · C. LarinGoal, 29' · J. DavidGoal, 45' · J. DavidGoal, 64' · N. SalibaGoal, 75' · M. Al MannaiGoal, 90' · J. David

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Qatar: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CanadaQatar
  • Yellow cardD. Cornelius· TrippingD. Cornelius is booked — Tripping.9'
  • GoalC. LarinC. Larin scores for Canada.16'
  • GoalJ. DavidJ. David scores for Canada.29'
  • 33'Red cardH. Al Amin· FoulH. Al Amin is sent off — Foul.
  • 40'SubstitutionY. Abdurisag· S. Al BrakeQatar change: S. Al Brake.
  • GoalJ. DavidJ. David scores for Canada.45'+3
  • 46'SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· A. FathiQatar change: A. Fathi.
  • 46'SubstitutionJ. Gaber· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.
  • SubstitutionD. Cornelius· M. BombitoCanada change: M. Bombito.46'
  • 53'Red cardA. O. Madibo· Serious foulA. O. Madibo is sent off — Serious foul.
  • SubstitutionI. Kone· N. SalibaCanada change: N. Saliba.57'
  • 59'SubstitutionA. Afif· A. Al HussainQatar change: A. Al Hussain.
  • 62'Yellow cardA. Fathi· TrippingA. Fathi is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalN. SalibaN. Saliba scores for Canada.64'
  • SubstitutionL. De Fougerolles· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.71'
  • SubstitutionA. Ahmed· T. OluwaseyiCanada change: T. Oluwaseyi.71'
  • Own goalM. Al MannaiM. Al Mannai turns it into their own net — credited to Qatar.75'
  • SubstitutionT. Buchanan· N. SigurCanada change: N. Sigur.83'
  • 87'SubstitutionA. Fathi· Lucas MendesQatar change: Lucas Mendes.
  • GoalJ. David· N. SalibaJ. David scores for Canada.90'+2

Player involvement

Canada

J. David29' Goal · 45'+3 Goal · 90'+2 Goal
AN. Saliba57' Off · 64' Goal · 90'+2 Assist
C. Larin16' Goal
D. Cornelius9' Yellow card · 46' On

Qatar

H. Al Amin33' Red card
A. O. Madibo53' Red card
A. Fathi46' Off · 62' Yellow card · 87' On
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Canada win
68.0%
Draw
22.9%
Qatar win
9.2%
Canada
1.88
expected
goals
Qatar
0.75

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    12.9%
  • 2–0
    12.7%
  • 1–1
    10.8%
  • 2–1
    9.6%
  • 3–0
    8.0%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

6 – 0
Canada win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win· realised
    64.3%
  • Draw
    23.1%
  • Qatar win
    12.7%
Brier score
0.197
Log loss
0.442
xG (final / predicted)
4.11 / 1.78 · Canada
0.18 / 0.94 · Qatar
P(realised outcome)
64.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。