Mesuré en public
14 Jun 2026
Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.
Moyenne du jour : Within expectations
- 7 – 1
- Germany · réalisé90.0%
- Match nul8.9%
- Curaçao1.1%
VerdictNailed itGermany 7–1 Curaçao was the outcome the model rated most likely (90.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.018, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Germany9Kai HavertzScored two goals, including a penalty, and was a constant threat in attack throughout the match.8Felix NmechaScored an early goal and earned a penalty, significantly contributing to Germany's attack.8Jamal MusialaScored a sensational goal and consistently troubled the opposition defense with his dribbling and vision.Curaçao8Livano ComenenciaScored a historic goal for Curaçao, marking a significant moment for his nation.6Juninho BacunaHad one shot that went wide but did not otherwise impact the game.6Eloy RoomDespite conceding seven goals, he made numerous crucial saves that prevented an even larger deficit for his team. - NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun1 – 0
- Ivory Coast · réalisé17.2%
- Match nul29.4%
- Ecuador53.4%
VerdictSurprise resultIvory Coast 1–0 Ecuador was an outcome the model rated at 17.2% (17.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.058, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Ivory Coast9Amad DialloHe scored two crucial goals, including the game-winner, making a significant impact as a substitute.7Yan DiomandeHe was active with multiple shots saved or blocked, showed good dribbling ability, and hit the crossbar.6Bazoumana TouréHe was active in attack, hitting the crossbar twice, but did not manage to score.Ecuador8Hernán GalíndezHe made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention despite the loss.7Alan MindaHe was very active in attack, hitting the crossbar twice and the post once, showing significant threat despite not scoring.7Nilson AnguloHe was unlucky to hit the post and had multiple shots saved, demonstrating a consistent attacking threat. - NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun2 – 2
- Netherlands47.0%
- Match nul · réalisé25.3%
- Japan27.7%
VerdictWithin expectationsNetherlands 2–2 Japan was an outcome the model rated at 25.3% (25.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.855, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Netherlands8Virgil van DijkScored a powerful header to give the Netherlands the lead.7Crysencio SummervilleScored a strong strike to put the Netherlands ahead but also received a yellow card.7Bart VerbruggenMade several key saves, preventing Japan from scoring on multiple occasions.Japan8Keito NakamuraScored a well-placed shot to equalize for Japan.8Koki OgawaCame off the bench to score a vital equalizer for Japan.7Zion SuzukiMade several crucial saves to deny the Netherlands scoring opportunities. - 5 – 1
- Sweden · réalisé45.4%
- Match nul27.5%
- Tunisia27.1%
VerdictStrong readSweden 5–1 Tunisia was the outcome the model rated most likely (45.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.447, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Sweden9Yasin AyariScored two crucial goals, including the opener and a powerful late strike, demonstrating excellent finishing.9Viktor GyökeresScored two goals and provided an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and playmaking ability.9Mattias SvanbergScored two goals shortly after coming on as a substitute, demonstrating immediate impact and clinical finishing.Tunisia8Omar RekikScored both of Tunisia's goals with headers from set-pieces, showing good aerial ability.7Hannibal MejbriProvided a dangerous cross that directly led to one of Tunisia's goals.6Sebastian TounektiCame on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
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