Prévision vs résultat · Group F · Matchday 1

Netherlands vs Japan

2026-06-14

Post-match calibration

2 – 2
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win
    44.6%
  • Draw· realised
    25.0%
  • Japan win
    30.3%
Brier score
0.853
Log loss
1.385
xG (final / predicted)
0.79 / 1.60 · Netherlands
0.54 / 1.03 · Japan
P(realised outcome)
25.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Against the forecastThe model rated this outcome at 25.0%.
Late goalD. Kamada (88')

Key moments

51'⚽
Goal

V. van Dijk (Netherlands)

R. Gravenberch

57'⚽
Goal

K. Nakamura (Japan)

T. Kubo

64'⚽
Goal

C. Summerville (Netherlands)

R. Gravenberch

88'⚽
GoalLate

D. Kamada (Japan)

K. Ogawa

Match statistics

NETJapan
60%
Possession
40%
10
Shots
10
6
On target
3
0.79
xG
0.54
5
Corners
4
7
Fouls
7
3
Yellows
0

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (2–2) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#11–112.4%
#21–011.0%
#32–19.5%
#42–09.2%
#50–07.8%

Team performance

NetherlandsC+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Above profile7/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
Below profile4/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team's current form is inconsistent, showing attacking prowess but struggling to maintain defensive solidity.

JapanB
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Below profile3/10
Chance creation
Above profile7/10
Shot quality
Above profile8/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team showed strong character to come back twice and secure a draw against a formidable opponent.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Netherlands
8
Virgil van Dijk51'–51'

Scored a powerful header to give the Netherlands the lead.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

51'Virgil van Dijk scores for Netherlands with a powerful header.
7
Crysencio Summerville60'–69'

Scored a strong strike to put the Netherlands ahead but also received a yellow card.

1goals1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

60'Crysencio Summerville receives a yellow card.
64'Crysencio Summerville scores for Netherlands with a strong strike.
69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
7
Bart Verbruggen

Made several key saves, preventing Japan from scoring on multiple occasions.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

6
Teun Koopmeiners69'–69'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Quinten Timber69'–69'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Tijjani Reijnders69'–69'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Brian Brobbey84'–84'

Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

84'Brian Brobbey replaces Cody Gakpo for Netherlands.
6
Cody Gakpo84'–84'

Played for most of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

84'Brian Brobbey replaces Cody Gakpo for Netherlands.
5
Micky van de Ven90'–90'

Received a yellow card late in the match.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

90'Micky van de Ven receives a yellow card.
Japan
8
Keito Nakamura57'–57'

Scored a well-placed shot to equalize for Japan.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

57'Keito Nakamura scores for Japan with a well-placed shot.
8
Koki Ogawa

Came off the bench to score a vital equalizer for Japan.

7
Zion Suzuki

Made several crucial saves to deny the Netherlands scoring opportunities.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

6
Junya Ito

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

6
Daizen Maeda65'–65'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

65'Junya Ito replaces Daizen Maeda for Japan.
6
Takefusa Kubo74'–74'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Takehiro Tomiyasu74'–74'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Tsuyoshi Watanabe74'–74'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Kento Shiogai83'–83'

Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

83'Kento Shiogai replaces Ayase Ueda for Japan.
6
Ayase Ueda83'–83'

Played for most of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

83'Kento Shiogai replaces Ayase Ueda for Japan.

Match observations

  • The match was a hard-fought contest with both teams displaying strong attacking intent.
  • Netherlands gained the lead twice, first through a header from Virgil van Dijk and then a strike from Crysencio Summerville.
  • Japan showed resilience, equalising on both occasions with goals from Keito Nakamura and Koki Ogawa.
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Comment lire ces résultats. Le Brier score et le log loss d'un seul match sont bruités : ce qui compte, c'est la calibration de la prévision sur de nombreux matchs. Ce récapitulatif par match est une ligne du tableau de calibration global à /docs/calibration/. La probabilité pré-match affichée ici est celle figée avant le coup d'envoi ; elle n'a jamais été recalculée en cours de match.