Forecast vs result · Round of 32 · Match 8

England vs DR Congo

2026-07-01

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

England win
72.0%
Draw
23.9%
DR Congo win
4.0%
England
1.60
expected
goals
DR Congo
0.41

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

England
9
Harry Kane1'–1'

Scored both crucial goals for England, including the winner, showcasing clinical finishing and leadership when his team needed it most.

2goals1shots1on target1headers

Match timeline

1'Harry Kane scores his second goal, putting England in the lead.
1'Congo DR goalkeeper saves a header from Kane.
1'Congo DR goalkeeper saves a header from Kane.
9
Noni Madueke

Scored two goals with clinical finishing, establishing himself as a key attacking threat for England.

2goals

Match timeline

8
Anthony Gordon

Scored a goal, demonstrating good positioning and clinical finishing within the penalty area.

1goals

Match timeline

8
England GK

Made two significant saves, showcasing strong reflexes and positioning to prevent further goals for the opposition.

7
Jude Bellingham

Tested the opposition goalkeeper with a powerful shot, showcasing his offensive capabilities from midfield.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

7
Bukayo Saka

Forced a save from the opposition goalkeeper with a shot on target, contributing to England's offensive pressure.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

6
Marcus Rashford1'–1'

Created several attacking opportunities with shots on goal but lacked the clinical finish to convert them.

2shots1on target

Match timeline

1'Rashford's shot goes wide, hitting the side netting.
6
Ezri Konsa

Showed good attacking intent by hitting the post from inside the box, despite being a defender.

1shots

Match timeline

DR Congo
9
Congo DR GK #1

Delivered an exceptional goalkeeping performance, making numerous crucial saves that kept his team competitive throughout the match.

8
Sapanga0'–0'

Scored a crucial opening goal for Congo DR with a clinical finish, giving his team an early lead.

1goals

Match timeline

0'Sapanga scores for Congo DR, giving them an early lead.
6
Chancel Mbemba

Made an attacking effort that forced a save from the England goalkeeper, showing offensive intent from defense.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

Match observations

  • England then mounted sustained pressure, creating numerous chances that were repeatedly denied by an outstanding goalkeeping performance.
  • Despite the resilience of Congo DR, England eventually found their rhythm and secured a late victory through their captain.
  • The atmosphere in the stadium was electric, with fans reacting passionately to every significant moment.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.