Forecast vs result · Round of 32 · Match 1

South Africa vs Canada

2026-06-28

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

South Africa win
18.5%
Draw
30.5%
Canada win
51.1%
South Africa
0.68
expected
goals
Canada
1.19

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

South Africa
9
Ronwen Williams18'–130'

Made numerous critical saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention despite constant pressure.

6saves
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Match timeline

18'South Africa's goalkeeper saves a header from a corner kick.
28'South Africa's goalkeeper saves another header from a corner.
36'South Africa's goalkeeper makes a crucial follow-up save during the scramble.
52'South Africa's goalkeeper makes a save after a shot from close range by Canada.
123'South Africa's goalkeeper saves a shot at the near post.
130'South Africa's goalkeeper makes a diving save from a long-range shot by Canada's player 11.
7
Khuliso Mudau58'–58'

Made a vital goal-line block, preventing a certain goal and contributing significantly to the defensive effort.

1blocks
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Match timeline

58'A South African defender blocks a shot on the goal line.
7
Yaya Sithole

Showed offensive intent and created a scoring chance for his team, contributing to South Africa's attacking pressure.

1shots1on target
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Match timeline

Canada
8
Maxime Crépeau8'–8'

Made multiple crucial saves, including an early routine stop and later exceptional shot-stopping, to secure a clean sheet and the win.

2saves
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Match timeline

8'Canada's goalkeeper makes a save from a shot outside the box.
8
Stephen Eustáquio138'–138'

Scored the only goal of the match, securing the victory for Canada with a clinical finish.

1goals
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Match timeline

138'Steven Eustaquio scores for Canada, putting them 1-0 up.
5
Derek Cornelius

Missed a clear scoring opportunity from a set piece, failing to convert a free header.

1shots1headers
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Match timeline

5
Liam Millar41'–130'

Involved in attacking movements but was also twice nutmegged defensively and failed to convert his chances.

1shots1on target
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Match timeline

41'South Africa's player 20 executes a nutmeg on Canada's player 11.
130'South Africa's goalkeeper makes a diving save from a long-range shot by Canada's player 11.
4
Saliba

Was beaten by an opponent with a nutmeg, indicating a defensive lapse during the match.

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Match timeline

Match observations

  • The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams creating chances, particularly from set pieces.
  • South Africa's goalkeeper was a standout performer, making numerous saves to deny Canada.
  • Canada eventually broke the deadlock with a goal from Steven Eustaquio, securing their progression.
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.