Forecast vs result · Round of 16 · Match 7

Argentina vs Egypt

2026-07-07

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Argentina win
68.5%
Draw
26.0%
Egypt win
5.5%
Argentina
1.47
expected
goals
Egypt
0.42
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.