Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 3

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

2026-06-27

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

DR Congo win
37.1%
Draw
34.3%
Uzbekistan win
28.7%
DR Congo
0.90
expected
goals
Uzbekistan
0.74

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

DR Congo
8
Cédric Bakambu34'–34'

Scored a crucial equalizer with individual brilliance, demonstrating clinical finishing and dribbling skill.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

34'COD player #17 Bakambu equalizes with a well-placed shot after a skillful dribble into the penalty area.
8
Lionel Mpasi11'–147'

Delivered an exceptional performance with numerous crucial saves, keeping his team in the game against relentless pressure.

8saves
▼

Match timeline

11'saved by Impasi.
20'saved by Impasi.
32'saved by Impasi.
35'saved by Impasi.
51'A cross from Colombia is punched away by Impasi.
136'saved by Impasi.
144'saved by Impasi.
147'saved by Impasi.
Uzbekistan
8
Munoz11'–110'

Scored the decisive goal for Colombia, showcasing good attacking positioning to secure the win.

1goals2shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

11'The subsequent rebound shot by Munoz (#2) goes wide.
20'Colombia's Munoz (#2) receives a through ball and shoots, saved by Impasi.
110'Munoz (#2) scores for Colombia from close range after a scramble in the box.
7
Luis Diaz11'–136'

A constant attacking threat who created several chances and had a goal disallowed for offside.

4shots3on target
▼

Match timeline

11'Colombia's Luis Diaz (#7) cuts inside and shoots, saved by Impasi.
35'Colombia's Luis Diaz (#7) controls the ball and shoots from close range, saved by Impasi.
124'Colombia's Luis Diaz (#7) chips the goalkeeper after receiving a long pass, but the goal is disallowed for offside.
136'Colombia's Luis Diaz (#7) dribbles into the box and shoots, saved by Impasi.
6
Puerta147'–147'

Contributed to Colombia's attacking efforts with two shots on target, showing offensive intent from midfield.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

147'Colombia's Puerta (#14) strikes from distance, saved by Impasi.
6
Alijonov

Involved in general defensive efforts, attempting to halt opposition advances without specific notable actions.

Match observations

  • The match was an attacking spectacle, featuring multiple goals and dynamic offensive movements from both sides.
  • The atmosphere in the stadium was vibrant, with a large crowd and flags representing both nations.
  • COD demonstrated a strong comeback, overturning an early deficit to secure a commanding lead.
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.