Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 3

Portugal vs Colombia

2026-06-27

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Portugal win
41.8%
Draw
27.8%
Colombia win
30.4%
Portugal
1.19
expected
goals
Colombia
1.00

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Portugal
8
Cristiano Ronaldo

Scored the crucial equalizer from the penalty spot and showed leadership, despite an earlier disallowed goal.

8
Gonçalo Ramos

Came off the bench to score the decisive winning header, showcasing his aerial ability and impact.

7
Cordoba

Was highly active in attack, taking numerous shots and consistently posing a threat to the opposition's goal.

Colombia
8
Dominik Livaković

Delivered an outstanding performance with a string of crucial saves, despite conceding two goals including a penalty.

7
Ivan Perišić

Opened the scoring for Croatia with a well-placed shot, demonstrating his attacking quality.

7
Nikola Vlašić

Showed offensive threat by hitting the post and being involved in a disallowed goal.

7
J. Velez

Made a vital defensive block to deny a shot and also showed offensive initiative with an attempt on goal.

6
Luka Sučić

Was actively involved in attacking sequences that led to disallowed goals, showing his forward runs and offensive presence.

6
P. Velez

Showed some offensive initiative by attempting a shot from outside the box.

6
L. Arias

Contributed to the attack with a long-range shot, adding to Portugal's offensive pressure.

6
Luis Diaz

Attempted a shot from distance, contributing to the team's attacking pressure.

Match observations

  • The match was a competitive encounter with both teams creating numerous chances, though several goals were ruled out for offside.
  • Croatia took an early lead, but Portugal responded with a penalty to equalize.
  • The game saw a late surge from Portugal, culminating in a winning header.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.