Forecast vs result · Group J · Matchday 3

Algeria vs Austria

2026-06-27

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Algeria win
31.8%
Draw
25.4%
Austria win
42.9%
Algeria
1.18
expected
goals
Austria
1.27

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Algeria
8
Maza37'–82'

Was a persistent attacking threat, creating multiple chances and directly contributing to a goal.

3shots3on target1headers

Match timeline

37'Algeria's Maza has a shot saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
54'Maza's header for Algeria is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
54'Maza's header for Algeria is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
82'Chaibi puts Algeria ahead, scoring from a rebound after Maza's shot was saved.
8
Chaibi

Scored a vital go-ahead goal and showed attacking intent by hitting the post.

7
Aouar80'–80'

His shot created the rebound opportunity from which Mahrez scored a vital equalizer.

1shots

Match timeline

80'Mahrez equalises for Algeria, converting a rebound after Aouar's shot was blocked.
6
Belghali

Contributed to the attack with a dangerous cross that created a scoring opportunity.

5
Benbot

Conceded three goals against Austria and struggled to contain their clinical finishing.

Austria
8
Arnautović19'–19'

Opened the scoring for Austria with a well-taken goal, demonstrating excellent movement.

1goals

Match timeline

19'Arnautović scores for Austria after a through ball, slotting it past the goalkeeper.
8
Kalajdzic

Secured a crucial late equalizer with a well-placed header, showcasing his aerial ability.

7
Laimer

Provided an assist for Austria's second goal after an effective attacking run and delivery.

Match observations

  • This was a highly entertaining and high-scoring match, with both teams showing strong attacking intent.
  • The lead changed hands multiple times, creating a dramatic contest for the fans.
  • Austria showed their fighting spirit by securing a last-minute equaliser.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.