Forecast vs result · Group H · Matchday 3

Spain vs Uruguay

2026-06-26

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Spain win
61.2%
Draw
27.2%
Uruguay win
11.6%
Spain
1.40
expected
goals
Uruguay
0.67

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Spain
8
Mikel Oyarzabal37'–37'

Scored the crucial opening goal with a clinical finish from inside the box.

1goals

Match timeline

37'Mikel Oyarzabal scores for Spain with a clinical finish from inside the box.
8
Borja Mayoral75'–75'

Scored Spain's second goal by arriving in the box with excellent timing and a well-placed finish.

1goals

Match timeline

75'Borja Mayoral extends Spain's lead with a well-placed finish after a late run into the box.
8
Marc Cucurella88'–88'

Secured Spain's third goal with a decisive forward run and clinical finish from a defensive position.

1goals

Match timeline

88'Marc Cucurella scores Spain's third goal with a well-timed run and finish.
7
Fabián Ruiz56'–56'

Registered a powerful shot on goal that required a brilliant save from the opposition goalkeeper.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

56'Had a powerful shot on goal that was expertly saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
7
Álex Baena59'–59'

Came very close to scoring, hitting the post and forcing a good save with powerful shots.

1goals2shots1on target

Match timeline

59'Spain hits the post with a shot from Baena.
7
M. ARAUJO

Displayed composure in possession and actively contributed to Spain's offensive build-up from the back.

7
Aymeric Laporte

Played a key role in Spain's ball distribution from the defensive line, maintaining possession and initiating attacks.

Match timeline

Uruguay
9
Alexander Schlager56'–60'

Made multiple brilliant and crucial saves, preventing a much larger deficit for his team.

3saves

Match timeline

56'Alexander Schlager makes a brilliant save to deny a powerful shot from Spain.
60'Alexander Schlager makes another smart stop from a close-range header.
8
Nicolás de la Cruz

Was instrumental in creating offensive opportunities for Uruguay through his dribbling and passing.

Match timeline

Match observations

  • Spain delivered a dominant performance, showcasing their attacking flair and control of the midfield.
  • Austria's goalkeeper, Alexander Schlager, was a standout performer, making numerous saves to prevent a larger deficit.
  • Spain's persistent pressure and intricate passing eventually broke down the Austrian defense, leading to three well-taken goals.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.