Forecast vs result · Group G · Matchday 3

Egypt vs Iran

2026-06-26

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Egypt win
27.7%
Draw
32.9%
Iran win
39.4%
Egypt
0.78
expected
goals
Iran
0.88

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Egypt
9
Trézéguet

Scored two crucial goals and consistently posed an offensive threat with powerful shots and dribbling.

2goals2shots1on target

Match timeline

7
Mohanad Lasheen

Made a vital defensive block to prevent a goal during a dangerous Iranian attack.

1blocks

Match timeline

7
Sentolan

Made a critical defensive block from an Iranian corner, clearing the danger.

1blocks

Match timeline

6
Mostafa Shobeir

Made a vital penalty save but also mishandled a ball leading to a disallowed goal, balancing his performance.

2saves

Match timeline

Iran
8
Ramin Rezaeian

Scored Iran's equalizing goal with good positioning and composure in a crowded area.

1goals

Match timeline

7
Ramin

Provided a crucial assist for Iran's equalizer, showing good composure and vision.

7
Mehdi Ghayedi

Tapped in a goal to equalize for Iran, demonstrating good positioning.

6
Alireza Jahanbakhsh

Contributed to attacking efforts with a header from a corner, though it was saved.

1shots1on target1headers

Match timeline

4
Mehdi Taremi

His missed penalty was a significant setback for Iran, and no other significant positive impact was mentioned.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

Match observations

  • Iran secured a convincing victory over Jordan in this World Cup Qualifier match, maintaining a comfortable lead throughout the highlights.
  • Their offensive strategy, featuring strong drives to the basket and effective three-point shooting, proved difficult for Jordan to contain.
  • The home crowd provided a lively atmosphere, but it was not enough to shift the momentum decisively in Jordan's favour.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.