Forecast vs result · Group B · Matchday 3

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar

2026-06-24

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Bosnia and Herzegovina win
52.5%
Draw
25.6%
Qatar win
21.8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.37
expected
goals
Qatar
0.95

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
9
Ermedin Demirović75'–81'

Scored two crucial goals, including a penalty, but received a yellow card for excessive celebration.

2goals1 yellow

Match timeline

75'Ermedin Demirović (Bosnia and Herzegovina) scores with a powerful shot from inside the box, beating the goalkeeper.
80'Ermedin Demirović (Bosnia and Herzegovina) scores again, converting a penalty kick.
81'Ermedin Demirović (Bosnia and Herzegovina) receives a yellow card for excessive celebration (removing shirt).
8
Ivan Bašić12'–12'

Scored the opening goal with a composed finish, setting the tone for his team's strong attacking performance.

1goals

Match timeline

12'Ivan Bašić (Bosnia and Herzegovina) scores, placing the ball into the bottom left corner after a through ball.
8
Ivan Šunjić19'–45'

Scored a spectacular long-range goal before being substituted at half-time, showcasing excellent striking ability.

1goals

Match timeline

19'Ivan Šunjić (Bosnia and Herzegovina) scores with a powerful shot from outside the box, finding the top right corner.
45'Ivan Šunjić (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is substituted for T. Tahirović.
8
Nikola Katić25'–25'

Scored a crucial header from a corner kick, demonstrating his aerial prowess and contributing to the team's attacking output.

1goals

Match timeline

25'Nikola Katić (Bosnia and Herzegovina) scores with a header from a corner kick, beating the goalkeeper.
6
T. Tahirović

Substituted in at half-time but had no specific notable actions recorded.

Qatar
10
Akram Afif38'–90'

Scored a hat-trick with clinical finishing, proving to be Qatar's most dangerous player and a constant threat on the counter-attack.

3goals

Match timeline

38'Akram Afif (Qatar) scores with a well-placed shot into the bottom left corner from inside the box.
55'Akram Afif (Qatar) scores with a low shot into the bottom left corner after a quick counter-attack.
90'Akram Afif (Qatar) scores with a header from a cross, completing his hat-trick.
8
Hassan Al-Haydos42'–75'

Scored a goal from close range, demonstrating good positioning and contributing to Qatar's first-half comeback.

1goals

Match timeline

42'Hassan Al-Haydos (Qatar) scores with a shot from close range, beating the goalkeeper.
75'Hassan Al-Haydos (Qatar) is substituted for A. Alaaeldin.
8
Pedro Miguel47'–47'

Scored a powerful goal from inside the box early in the second half, significantly boosting Qatar's comeback efforts.

1goals

Match timeline

47'Pedro Miguel (Qatar) scores with a powerful shot from inside the box, finding the top right corner.
5
Ahmed Fathy75'–75'

Received a yellow card for a foul, which was his only notable action in the match.

1 yellow

Match timeline

75'Ahmed Fathy (Qatar) receives a yellow card for a foul.
4
Mahmoud Abunada

Conceded five goals despite an early save, indicating a challenging match for the goalkeeper.

Match observations

  • This video captures a training session for the Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team.
  • The session begins with a comprehensive dynamic warm-up, featuring various stretches and jogging drills.
  • Following the warm-up, the players transition into close-control ball work, emphasizing quick touches and coordination in small groups.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.