Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 2

DR Congo vs Colombia

2026-06-23

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

DR Congo win
5.7%
Draw
25.7%
Colombia win
68.5%
DR Congo
0.49
expected
goals
Colombia
1.57

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

DR Congo
8
Wissa50'–50'

Scored the vital equalizing goal for Congo DR with a composed and clinical finish.

1goals

Match timeline

50'Wissa scores for Congo DR, levelling the match
8
Congo DR Goalkeeper

Made several crucial saves in the second half, including from Cancelo and Bruno Fernandes, to secure the draw for Congo DR.

7
Bakambu25'–70'

Created numerous scoring opportunities and showed good movement, but was ultimately unlucky not to convert.

3shots1on target

Match timeline

25'Bakambu (Congo DR) shoots wide from inside the box
30'Portugal goalkeeper makes a diving save from a powerful shot by Bakambu (Congo DR)
70'Bakambu (Congo DR) hits the post from close range
Colombia
8
João Neves

Scored the opening goal for Portugal with excellent positioning and a well-placed header.

7
Cancelo

Showed good attacking intent from left-back, forcing a save from the opposition goalkeeper.

7
Bruno Fernandes

Unleashed a powerful shot from distance that tested the goalkeeper, showcasing his offensive threat.

7
Portugal Goalkeeper

Made a crucial diving save in the first half to prevent Congo DR from scoring and maintaining Portugal's lead.

5
Ronaldo

Despite being central to Portugal's attacks, he missed several clear opportunities and had a goal disallowed, impacting the team's ability to win.

Match observations

  • The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams finding the net and creating numerous opportunities.
  • Portugal took an early lead, but Congo DR responded well to equalise in the second half.
  • The game featured end-to-end action, with both goalkeepers called upon to make significant stops.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.