Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 2

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

2026-06-23

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Portugal win
78.2%
Draw
18.9%
Uzbekistan win
2.9%
Portugal
2.15
expected
goals
Uzbekistan
0.47

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Portugal
9
Ronaldo

Scored multiple goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and leading the attack for Portugal.

Uzbekistan
3
Nemotov

Conceded multiple goals and scored an unfortunate own goal under immense pressure from the opposition.

Match observations

  • The match was dominated by Portugal from the outset, showcasing high pressing and relentless attacking pressure.
  • Portugal's clinical finishing allowed them to build a significant lead early and maintain control throughout the game.
  • Uzbekistan attempted quick counter-attacks but found it difficult to penetrate Portugal's solid defence.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.