Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 2

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

2026-06-23

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome — Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Portugal win
65.2%
Draw
23.5%
Uzbekistan win
11.2%
Portugal
1.86
expected
goals
Uzbekistan
0.52
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy — what matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.