Forecast vs result · Group L · Matchday 1

Ghana vs Panama

2026-06-17

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Ghana win
40.8%
Draw
29.3%
Panama win
29.8%
Ghana
1.10
expected
goals
Panama
0.93

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Ghana
9
Lawrence Ati-Zigi1'–90'

His numerous crucial saves throughout the match, especially early on and at the very end, were instrumental in securing the clean sheet and the victory for Ghana.

5saves
▼

Match timeline

1'Ghana goalkeeper saved a shot from Panama's #18, Martinez.
33'Ghana goalkeeper saved a shot from Panama's #16, Andrade.
36'Ghana goalkeeper saved a shot from Panama's #7, Martinez.
59'Ghana goalkeeper saved a shot from Panama's #18, Martinez.
90'Ghana goalkeeper saved a shot from Panama's #10, Diaz.
8
Antoine Semenyo61'–90'

Semenyo scored the decisive late goal with a composed finish after a good dribble, proving to be Ghana's key attacking threat.

1goals2shots2on target
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Match timeline

61'Ghana's #10, Semenyo, had a shot saved by the Panama goalkeeper.
64'Ghana's #10, Semenyo, had a shot saved by the Panama goalkeeper.
90'Ghana's #10, Semenyo, scored with a composed finish after a good dribble, breaking the deadlock.
7
Jordan Ayew61'–61'

Ayew provided an attacking presence for Ghana, having a shot on target and showing good predatory instincts in the box.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

61'Ghana's #22, Ayew, had a follow-up shot saved by the Panama goalkeeper.
Panama
6
Cristian Martínez1'–59'

Martínez was a persistent attacking threat for Panama, creating several chances and having multiple shots, but ultimately lacked the precision to convert.

4shots3on target
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Match timeline

1'Panama's #18, Martinez, had an early shot saved by the Ghana goalkeeper.
33'Panama's #18, Martinez, went down in the box, but the referee waved away penalty claims.
36'Panama's #7, Martinez, had a shot saved by the Ghana goalkeeper.
37'Panama's #18, Martinez, fired wide from a rebound.
59'Panama's #18, Martinez, had another close-range effort saved by the Ghana goalkeeper.
5
Jiovany Ramos66'–66'

Ramos had a moment of individual attacking endeavor with a shot from outside the box, but it failed to hit the target.

1shots
▼

Match timeline

66'Panama's #13, Ramos, struck a shot wide from outside the box.
5
Ismael Díaz90'–90'

Díaz had a final effort on target in injury time that was saved, almost snatching a late equalizer for Panama.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

90'Panama's #10, Diaz, had a final effort saved by the Ghana goalkeeper.
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.