Group C · Matchday 3

← Pronóstico previo al partido
Scheduled
Morocco
–:–
Haiti

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Morocco win
    74.6%
  • Draw
    18.9%
  • Haiti win
    6.5%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates Morocco as clear favourites at 74.6%, with Haiti at 6.5% and the draw at 18.9%. The Elo gap is substantial at 290 points in Morocco's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group C, Morocco are expected to advance (91.1%) while Haiti face a tighter path (7.8%) — this result could be decisive for Haiti's campaign.

Tactical matchup

Morocco (counter attacker) meet Haiti (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Morocco will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Sofyan Amrabat (P(scores) 6.3%) against Dany Jean (2.6%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

Morocco face a 7,048km journey to the venue versus Haiti's 2,036km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.

Match storyline

At 6.5%, a Haiti result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.

Key numbers

74.6% / 18.9% / 6.5%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+290Elo differentialMorocco 1822 vs Haiti 1532
2.41 – 0.42Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
2-0 (17.2%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
31.2%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
6.3%P(goal) — Sofyan AmrabatHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Morocco or Haiti.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 3

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La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Morocco v Haiti plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.