Group C · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Haiti's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Morocco's direct transition game. The risk for Haiti: getting caught between attacking and defending.
What decides it
Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Morocco travel 7,048km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
The model gives Haiti just 9.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Morocco or Haiti.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Morocco
Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Haiti
Haiti come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Haiti's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Haiti's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Morocco minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 10'Own goalBonoBono turns it into their own net — credited to Morocco.
- GoalA. HakimiA. Hakimi scores for Morocco.39'
- 43'GoalW. Isidor· J. DuverneW. Isidor scores for Haiti.
- GoalI. Saibari· A. HakimiI. Saibari scores for Morocco.45'+1
- 67'SubstitutionR. Providence· D. NazonHaiti change: D. Nazon.
- 67'SubstitutionW. Isidor· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
- SubstitutionB. Diaz· A. OunahiMorocco change: A. Ounahi.70'
- SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiMorocco change: S. Rahimi.70'
- SubstitutionA. El Kaabi· G. YassineMorocco change: G. Yassine.70'
- GoalS. Rahimi· C. RiadS. Rahimi scores for Morocco.78'
- 79'Yellow cardD. Nazon· Unsportsmanlike conductD. Nazon is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- 79'Yellow cardJ. Placide· Unsportsmanlike conductJ. Placide is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- 80'SubstitutionJ. Duverne· C. ArcusHaiti change: C. Arcus.
- 80'SubstitutionD. Jean Jacques· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
- SubstitutionA. Salah-Eddine· N. MazraouiMorocco change: N. Mazraoui.83'
- SubstitutionN. El Aynaoui· S. El MourabetMorocco change: S. El Mourabet.83'
- 83'SubstitutionL. Joseph· F. PierrotHaiti change: F. Pierrot.
- GoalG. Yassine· S. RahimiG. Yassine scores for Morocco.89'
- 90'+4Yellow cardJ. Casimir· TrippingJ. Casimir is booked — Tripping.
Player involvement
Morocco
Haiti
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilità pubblicata per questa partita è fissata alla conferma delle formazioni (≈1 ora prima del calcio d'inizio) e non si aggiorna più. È il numero di cui il riepilogo post-partita rende conto. La probabilità di vittoria live nella sezione Live è una stima separata, in differita e descrittiva; non sostituisce la previsione pubblicata.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–017.3%
- 1–014.7%
- 3–013.2%
- 4–07.5%
- 2–17.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.