Group C · Matchday 3
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Morocco win74.6%
- Draw18.9%
- Haiti win6.5%
Analysis
The model rates Morocco as clear favourites at 74.6%, with Haiti at 6.5% and the draw at 18.9%. The Elo gap is substantial at 290 points in Morocco's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group C, Morocco are expected to advance (91.1%) while Haiti face a tighter path (7.8%) — this result could be decisive for Haiti's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Morocco (counter attacker) meet Haiti (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Morocco will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Sofyan Amrabat (P(scores) 6.3%) against Dany Jean (2.6%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Morocco face a 7,048km journey to the venue versus Haiti's 2,036km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.
Match storyline
At 6.5%, a Haiti result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Morocco or Haiti.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 3
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Morocco v Haiti plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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