Group C · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Morocco
4:2
Haiti

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Live descriptive stats

MoroccoHaiti
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Morocco2.293.26+0.97
Haiti0.430.52+0.09

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
22
5
Shots on target
11
1
Possession (%)
70%
30%
Corners
9
0
Fouls
10
18
Yellow cards
0
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Haiti's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Morocco's direct transition game. The risk for Haiti: getting caught between attacking and defending.

What decides it

Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Morocco travel 7,048km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Haiti just 9.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Morocco or Haiti.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 3
Date:
24 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Morocco

Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Haiti

Haiti come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Haiti's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Haiti's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Morocco (above the line)Haiti (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 10' · BonoGoal, 39' · A. HakimiGoal, 43' · W. IsidorGoal, 45' · I. SaibariGoal, 78' · S. RahimiGoal, 89' · G. Yassine

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Morocco minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

MoroccoHaiti
  • 10'Own goalBonoBono turns it into their own net — credited to Morocco.
  • GoalA. HakimiA. Hakimi scores for Morocco.39'
  • 43'GoalW. Isidor· J. DuverneW. Isidor scores for Haiti.
  • GoalI. Saibari· A. HakimiI. Saibari scores for Morocco.45'+1
  • 67'SubstitutionR. Providence· D. NazonHaiti change: D. Nazon.
  • 67'SubstitutionW. Isidor· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
  • SubstitutionB. Diaz· A. OunahiMorocco change: A. Ounahi.70'
  • SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiMorocco change: S. Rahimi.70'
  • SubstitutionA. El Kaabi· G. YassineMorocco change: G. Yassine.70'
  • GoalS. Rahimi· C. RiadS. Rahimi scores for Morocco.78'
  • 79'Yellow cardD. Nazon· Unsportsmanlike conductD. Nazon is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • 79'Yellow cardJ. Placide· Unsportsmanlike conductJ. Placide is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • 80'SubstitutionJ. Duverne· C. ArcusHaiti change: C. Arcus.
  • 80'SubstitutionD. Jean Jacques· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
  • SubstitutionA. Salah-Eddine· N. MazraouiMorocco change: N. Mazraoui.83'
  • SubstitutionN. El Aynaoui· S. El MourabetMorocco change: S. El Mourabet.83'
  • 83'SubstitutionL. Joseph· F. PierrotHaiti change: F. Pierrot.
  • GoalG. Yassine· S. RahimiG. Yassine scores for Morocco.89'
  • 90'+4Yellow cardJ. Casimir· TrippingJ. Casimir is booked — Tripping.

Player involvement

Morocco

AA. Hakimi39' Goal · 45'+1 Assist
AS. Rahimi70' Off · 78' Goal · 89' Assist
I. Saibari45'+1 Goal · 70' On
G. Yassine70' Off · 89' Goal
AC. Riad78' Assist

Haiti

W. Isidor43' Goal · 67' On
AJ. Duverne43' Assist · 80' On
D. Nazon67' Off · 79' Yellow card
J. Placide79' Yellow card
J. Casimir90'+4 Yellow card
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Morocco win
79.7%
Draw
18.1%
Haiti win
2.3%
Morocco
2.29
expected
goals
Haiti
0.43

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    17.3%
  • 1–0
    14.7%
  • 3–0
    13.2%
  • 4–0
    7.5%
  • 2–1
    7.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。