Group B · Matchday 3
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Bosnia and Herzegovina win44.7%
- Draw25.6%
- Qatar win29.7%
Analysis
The model gives Bosnia and Herzegovina a moderate advantage at 44.7% versus 29.7% for Qatar (draw 25.6%). A 169-point Elo gap gives Bosnia and Herzegovina a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 19.1% for Qatar.
Tactical matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) meet Qatar (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Qatar will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Ermedin Demirović (P(scores) 7.0%) against Akram Afif (6.7%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Edin Džeko, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 3
One side faces several squad uncertainties for this match, while the other reports a clean bill of health; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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