Qatar

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

AFC·Grupo B·FIFA #51

Long shot

Compact low-block side with an Al-Duhail-heavy spine.

Rival: Switzerland (#17)
Clave: Akram Afif (FW)

Share this cardSave image

Perspectiva del torneo

Analysis

Qatar carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (42nd of 48). The squad bridges generations: Hassan Al-Haydos (35 at kickoff with 184 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Tahsin Jamshid, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 19.1% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Qatar under Julen Lopetegui play a low block game, with just 43% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 5-3-2, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 35.0). They are selective in their shooting (6.2 per 90).

Path to success

In Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar are projected at 19.1% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Qatar will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Hassan Al-Haydos across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Qatar broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

<0.1%Win probability42nd in field

1425Elo ratingRanked 95th globally

5-3-2Predicted formationFrom 3 observed matches

6.2Shots per 90lowest in the field

16.2%Tournament goal probability — Akram AfifTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

526 daysManager tenureJulen Lopetegui

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Low block · style profile from 3 recent matches

Press

Build-up

6.2

Directness

5.9

Width (proxy)

436.4

Tempo

10.1

Set-piece relianceno data

What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.

Percentiles position Qatar against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group B finish · Qatar

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
1.4%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
6.7%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
29.3%
4th
Eliminated
62.6%

Stage progression · Qatar

, 50,000 sims

22.7%AdvAdvance from group
4.6%R16Round of 16
0.7%QFQuarter-final
0.1%SFSemi-final
<0.1%FFinal
0.0%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Qatar

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

United States19%

Turkey16%

Australia14%

R16

Round of 16

Belgium25%

Netherlands10%

Iran9%

Quarter-final

Spain32%

France8%

Portugal8%

Semi-final

Scotland15%

Netherlands15%

Japan15%

Final

Argentina100%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

La plantilla

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Meshaal BarshamCaps-driven↘Al-Sadd

52c—0.47

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Boualem KhoukhiCaps-driven→Al-Sadd

114c—0.10

Homam AhmedCaps-drivenCultural Leonesa

66c—0.21

Pedro MiguelCaps-driven↗Al-Sadd

97c—0.06

Lucas MendesCaps-driven↘Al-Wakrah

24c—0.27

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Abdulaziz HatemCaps-driven→Al-Rayyan

116c7assists0.10

Karim BoudiafCaps-driven↘Al-Duhail

116c5assists0.09

Assim MadiboCaps-drivenAl-Wakrah

49c0assists0.09

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Akram AfifCaps-driven↗Al-Sadd

123c39goals0.51

Almoez AliCaps-driven↗Al-Duhail

114c55goals0.48

Hassan Al-HaydosCaps-drivenAl-Sadd

184c41goals0.15

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Salah ZakariaRating-drivenAl-Duhail★ Likely first sub

8c—0.30

Mahmud AbunadaRating-drivenAl-Rayyan★ Likely first sub

3c—0.16

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Sultan Al-BrakeCaps-drivenAl-Duhail★ Likely first sub

16c—0.14

Al-Hashmi Al-HussainCaps-drivenAl-Arabi★ Likely first sub

6c—0.02

Ayoub Al-OuiCaps-drivenAl-Gharafa★ Likely first sub

4c—0.02

Issa LayeCaps-drivenAl-Arabi

2c—0.02

Rayyan Al-AliAl-Gharafa

0c—0.00

Midfielders (4)

PlayerStat

Ahmed FathyCaps-drivenAl-Arabi★ Likely first sub

46c1assists0.10

Jassem GaberCaps-driven↘Al-Rayyan★ Likely first sub

31c3assists0.23

Mohamed Al-MannaiCaps-drivenAl-Shamal★ Likely first sub

8c1assists0.03

Tahsin JamshidCaps-drivenAl-Duhail

1c0assists0.00

Forwards (4)

PlayerStat

Mohammed MuntariCaps-drivenAl-Gharafa★ Likely first sub

67c16goals0.06

Ahmed AlaaeldinCaps-drivenAl-Rayyan★ Likely first sub

66c9goals0.13

Yusuf AbdurisagCaps-drivenAl-Wakrah

37c3goals0.08

Edmilson JuniorRating-drivenAl-Duhail★ Likely first sub

14c0goals0.42

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Almoez AliStrikerLikely cover: Ahmed Alaaeldin · 0.13Al-Rayyan0.36gap to repl.
Lucas MendesCentre-backLikely cover: Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain · 0.02Al-Arabi0.26gap to repl.
Meshaal BarshamGoalkeeperLikely cover: Salah Zakaria · 0.30Al-Duhail0.17gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Calendario de grupo

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 13, 2026	Switzerland	Santa Clara, United States
2	Jun 18, 2026	Canada	Vancouver, Canada
3	Jun 24, 2026	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Seattle, United States

Enfrentamientos directos

Goleadores proyectados de Qatar →

Historias

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Form trend

Lost 106 international Elo points between Nov 2024 and Dec 2025 — rating now 1569 (no fixtures since).

Club core

6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Duhail — a single-club spine on the international side.

League pedigree

Only 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

Last danceHassan Al-Haydos

35 at kickoff with 184 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Forma y trayectoria

Statistical profile

Low Block

Attack

Attack rating0.4637th/48

Shots per match6.248th/48

Chance quality0.06244th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.163rd/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5033rd/48

GK: Meshaal Barsham

Set pieces

Penalty conversion72.0%35th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%42nd/48

Style

Possession43.2%44th/48

Press intensity35.039th/48

Directness5.926th/48

Crossing volume436.420th/48

Long ball volume37.813th/48

Build-up length6.223rd/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter14044th/48

Club familiarity0.00041st/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Thin sample: 3 matches in the open dataset. Read the split as indicative rather than settled.

Scored1 goal · 20 shots

Conceded7 goals · 31 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 3 matches (WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Switzerland

Win8.4%

Draw18.4%

Loss73.2%

Expected goals for0.72

Expected goals against2.54

Likeliest score0-2 (12.3%)

Both teams score47.7%

Clean sheet7.9%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Canada

Win12.7%

Draw23.1%

Loss64.3%

Expected goals for0.94

Expected goals against1.78

Likeliest score1-1 (11.5%)

Both teams score51.1%

Clean sheet16.9%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Win29.7%

Draw25.6%

Loss44.7%

Expected goals for1.13

Expected goals against1.43

Likeliest score1-1 (13.1%)

Both teams score51.9%

Clean sheet24.0%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record1W · 4D · 5L

Goals9–19

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2025-12-07	HTunisia	0–3	L	Arab Cup
2025-12-04	HSyria	1–1	D	Arab Cup
2025-12-01	HPalestine	0–1	L	Arab Cup
2025-11-17	HZimbabwe	1–2	L	Friendly
2025-10-14	HUnited Arab Emirates	2–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-08	HOman	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-07	HRussia	1–4	L	Friendly
2025-09-03	HBahrain	2–2	D	Friendly
2025-08-24	HLebanon	2–2	D	Friendly
2025-06-10	AUzbekistan	0–3	L	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	1-1-0	2010 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly
Canada	1	0-0-1	2022 — Loss (0–2) · Friendly
Switzerland	1	1-0-0	2018 — Win (1–0) · Friendly

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
AFC Asian Cup	2024	Champion	6-1-0	New head coach since then — now Julen Lopetegui (appointed 2025) 4/4 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Gold Cup	2023	Quarter-finals	1-1-2	New head coach since then — now Julen Lopetegui (appointed 2025) 4/4 of current pool (100%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Group stage	0-0-3	New head coach since then — now Julen Lopetegui (appointed 2025) 4/4 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Copa América	2019	Group stage	0-1-2	New head coach since then — now Julen Lopetegui (appointed 2025) 4/4 of current pool (100%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Turkmenistan · Asian Cup 2019
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1399) and group draw.
Indonesia · Asian Cup 2024
Exited at the round of 16
Indonesia · Asian Cup 1996
Exited at the group stage

Perspectiva del torneo

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group B finish · Qatar?

Stage progression · Qatar?

Likely knockout path · Qatar

La plantilla

Predicted squad?

Squad cohesion

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Calendario de grupo

Group-stage schedule

Enfrentamientos directos

Historias

Forma y trayectoria

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

Group B finish · Qatar

Stage progression · Qatar

Predicted squad