Group B · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Qatar defend deep and give Bosnia and Herzegovina the ball. The question is whether Bosnia and Herzegovina's balanced approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through.
What decides it
Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. The scoring threat is evenly split: Ermin Bičakčić (4.5%) and Akram Afif (6.7%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.
Qatar
Qatar come in at close to full strength.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Bosnia and Herzegovina minus Qatar: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalK. Alajbegovic· I. BasicK. Alajbegovic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.29'
- Own goalM. AbunadaM. Abunada turns it into their own net — credited to Qatar.34'
- 42'GoalH. Al Haydos· Edmilson JuniorH. Al Haydos scores for Qatar.
- SubstitutionI. Sunjic· B. TahirovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: B. Tahirovic.46'
- SubstitutionA. Malic· A. MemicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Memic.46'
- 46'SubstitutionJ. Gaber· A. HatemQatar change: A. Hatem.
- 56'SubstitutionH. Al Haydos· A. Al GanehiQatar change: A. Al Ganehi.
- SubstitutionN. Katic· D. HadzikadunicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Hadzikadunic.63'
- SubstitutionE. Dzeko· E. MahmicBosnia and Herzegovina change: E. Mahmic.64'
- 72'SubstitutionK. Boudiaf· A. AliQatar change: A. Ali.
- 78'Yellow cardA. FathiA. Fathi is booked.
- 79'SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· A. AlaaeldinQatar change: A. Alaaeldin.
- 79'SubstitutionA. Fathi· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.
- GoalE. Mahmic· D. HadzikadunicE. Mahmic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.80'
- SubstitutionK. Alajbegovic· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.82'
- Yellow cardE. Mahmic· Unsportsmanlike conductE. Mahmic is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.82'
Player involvement
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.6%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–18.8%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.