Group B · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3:1
Qatar

합산 FIFA 랭킹 기준 그날 가장 강력한 대진은 누구나 무료입니다. 전체 예측과 전체 라이브 트래커를 제공합니다. 다른 모든 경기는 Standard Pass가 필요합니다. Pass 보기

Live descriptive stats

Bosnia and HerzegovinaQatar
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Bosnia and Herzegovina1.370.64−0.73
Qatar0.950.77−0.18

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
14
9
Shots on target
5
3
Possession (%)
55%
45%
Corners
5
5
Fouls
9
14
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Qatar defend deep and give Bosnia and Herzegovina the ball. The question is whether Bosnia and Herzegovina's balanced approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through.

What decides it

Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. The scoring threat is evenly split: Ermin Bičakčić (4.5%) and Akram Afif (6.7%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 3
Date:
24 Jun
Availability

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.

Qatar

Qatar come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

실시간설명적 스탯과 지연 제공 라이브 승리 확률 · 약 30초마다 갱신

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Bosnia and Herzegovina (above the line)Qatar (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 29' · K. AlajbegovicGoal, 34' · M. AbunadaGoal, 42' · H. Al HaydosGoal, 80' · E. Mahmic

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Bosnia and Herzegovina minus Qatar: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Bosnia and HerzegovinaQatar
  • GoalK. Alajbegovic· I. BasicK. Alajbegovic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.29'
  • Own goalM. AbunadaM. Abunada turns it into their own net — credited to Qatar.34'
  • 42'GoalH. Al Haydos· Edmilson JuniorH. Al Haydos scores for Qatar.
  • SubstitutionI. Sunjic· B. TahirovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: B. Tahirovic.46'
  • SubstitutionA. Malic· A. MemicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Memic.46'
  • 46'SubstitutionJ. Gaber· A. HatemQatar change: A. Hatem.
  • 56'SubstitutionH. Al Haydos· A. Al GanehiQatar change: A. Al Ganehi.
  • SubstitutionN. Katic· D. HadzikadunicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Hadzikadunic.63'
  • SubstitutionE. Dzeko· E. MahmicBosnia and Herzegovina change: E. Mahmic.64'
  • 72'SubstitutionK. Boudiaf· A. AliQatar change: A. Ali.
  • 78'Yellow cardA. FathiA. Fathi is booked.
  • 79'SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· A. AlaaeldinQatar change: A. Alaaeldin.
  • 79'SubstitutionA. Fathi· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.
  • GoalE. Mahmic· D. HadzikadunicE. Mahmic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.80'
  • SubstitutionK. Alajbegovic· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.82'
  • Yellow cardE. Mahmic· Unsportsmanlike conductE. Mahmic is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.82'

Player involvement

Bosnia and Herzegovina

E. Mahmic64' Off · 80' Goal · 82' Yellow card
K. Alajbegovic29' Goal · 82' On
AI. Basic29' Assist
AD. Hadzikadunic63' Off · 80' Assist

Qatar

H. Al Haydos42' Goal · 56' On
AEdmilson Junior42' Assist · 79' On
A. Fathi78' Yellow card · 79' On
경기 전 모델킥오프 전 고정

Pre-match forecast

Bosnia and Herzegovina win
52.5%
Draw
25.6%
Qatar win
21.8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.37
expected
goals
Qatar
0.95

이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.6%
  • 1–0
    12.6%
  • 0–0
    10.6%
  • 2–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    8.8%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

라이브 확률의 작동 방식. 공개된 경기 전 예측은 라인업 확정(T-1h) 시점에 동결되어 킥오프 이후 변하지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중 표시되는 라이브 승리 확률은 같은 모델을 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 다시 읽은 것입니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 항상 지연되며, 설명적 리서치 수치일 뿐 사행성 상품도, 어떤 형태의 가격도 아닙니다. 전체 프레임은 /docs/methodology/ 에서 확인하세요.