Turniertor-Wahrscheinlichkeiten · England

Snapshot · 2026-06-23Model 1.0.0

England — P(erzielt mindestens 1 Tor)

Alle Spieler im aktuellen Aufgebot von England, sortiert nach der Modell-Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sie mindestens ein Tor in den Spielen von England bei der FIFA Fussball-WM 2026 erzielen. Siehe /scorers/ für die globale Top 50 und /countries/eng/ für den prognostizierten Kader und die voraussichtliche Startelf.

51 Spieler im Aufgebot

Rank1Harry KanePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)35.9%
Rank2Marcus RashfordPKPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)34.0%
Rank3Ollie WatkinsPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)18.9%
Rank4Bukayo SakaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)14.5%
Rank5Anthony GordonPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)13.9%
Rank6Phil FodenPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)13.9%
Rank7Ivan ToneyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)13.0%
Rank8Dominic Calvert-LewinPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)10.3%
Rank9Jarrod BowenPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)9.9%
Rank10Harvey BarnesPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank11Jude BellinghamPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)8.1%
Rank12Dominic SolankePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)7.8%
Rank13Noni MaduekePosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)6.9%
Rank14Cole PalmerPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)5.3%
Rank15Eberechi EzePosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank16Morgan Gibbs-WhitePosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)4.6%
Rank17Morgan RogersPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)4.2%
Rank18Ruben Loftus-CheekPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.5%
Rank19Declan RicePosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank20Conor GallagherPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank21Curtis JonesPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank22Kobbie MainooPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank23Elliot AndersonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank24Marc GuéhiPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank25Alex ScottPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank26James GarnerPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank27Adam WhartonPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank28Jarell QuansahPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank29Reece JamesPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank30Kyle WalkerPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank31Trent Alexander-ArnoldPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank32Jordan HendersonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank33Harry MaguirePosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank34John StonesPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank35Levi ColwillPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank36Djed SpencePosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank37Lewis HallPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank38Ben WhitePosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank39Nico O'ReillyPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank40Trevoh ChalobahPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank41Ezri KonsaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank42Dan BurnPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank43Tino LivramentoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank44Myles Lewis-SkellyPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank45Fikayo TomoriPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank46Aaron RamsdalePosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Dean HendersonPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48James TraffordPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Jason SteelePosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank50Jordan PickfordPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank51Nick PopePosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

So wird das berechnet. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.