Startseite · Turniertor-Wahrscheinlichkeiten · Croatia Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Turniertor-Wahrscheinlichkeiten · Croatia
Snapshot · 2026-05-29 Model 1.0.0 Croatia — P(erzielt mindestens 1 Tor) Alle Spieler im aktuellen Aufgebot von Croatia, sortiert nach der Modell-Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sie mindestens ein Tor in den Spielen von Croatia bei der FIFA Fussball-WM 2026 erzielen. Siehe /scorers/ für die globale Top 50 und /countries/cro/ für den prognostizierten Kader und die voraussichtliche Startelf.
37 Spieler im Aufgebot # Player Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Ante Budimir PK Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 38.8% ? Rank 2 Andrej Kramarić Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 17.5% ? Rank 3 Petar Musa Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 11.4% ? Rank 4 Franjo Ivanović Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 9.5% ?
Rank 5 Igor Matanović Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 9.0% ? Rank 6 Mario Pašalić Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.1% ? Rank 7 Dion Drena Beljo Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 6.9% ?
Rank 8 Mislav Oršić Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 6.0% ?
Rank 9 Marco Pašalić Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.6% ? Rank 10 Ivan Perišić Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 11 Luka Sučić Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 4.0% ? Rank 12 Lovro Majer Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.4% ?
Rank 13 Luka Modrić Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.8% ? Rank 14 Mateo Kovačić Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.3% ? Rank 15 Martin Baturina Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ? Rank 16 Petar Sučić Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ? Rank 17 Nikola Vlašić Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.6% ? Rank 18 Toni Fruk Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.5% ? Rank 19 Joško Gvardiol Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.4% ? Rank 20 Nikola Moro Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.3% ? Rank 21 Kristijan Jakić Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.0% ? Rank 22 Luka Stojković Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.0% ?
Rank 23 Duje Ćaleta-Car Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.7% ? Rank 24 Josip Šutalo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.6% ? Rank 25 Luka Vušković Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 26 Ivan Smolčić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ?
Rank 27 Josip Juranović Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ?
Rank 28 Josip Stanišić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ? Rank 29 Martin Erlić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ? Rank 30 Borna Sosa Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ?
Rank 31 Domagoj Bradarić Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ?
Rank 32 Marin Pongračić Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.1% ? Rank 33 Dominik Kotarski Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 34 Dominik Livaković Pos GK Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 35 Ivica Ivušić Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 36 Ivor Pandur Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 37 Karlo Letica Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. So wird das berechnet. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.
onthepitch
Eine Forschungsplattform zur FIFA Fussball-Weltmeisterschaft 2026.
Methodik
Forecasts come from a calibrated Ensemble Elo Dixon-Coles Hierarchical Poisson /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up. Tap any abbreviation in a data table for its definition.
How the forecasts score against results — Brier log-loss calibration scoreboard .
Built 11 Jun 09:45 UTC · 0 days to kickoff · Methodology
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