Daily report card

11 Jun 2026

Each row grades the pre-match probability against the result as the day's matches finish.

Matches graded
2 / 2
Mean Brier score
0.398
Lower is better
0 = perfect foresight; 0.667 = always saying one-third each.
Full tournament report cardCalibration scoreboard

How to read this. Graded rows quote the probability published before kickoff next to the realised result, with that match's Brier score (lower is better). Single-match scores are noisy; the tournament mean on the full report card is the honest measure. Methodology at /docs/calibration/. Research output, not betting advice.