公开检验
11 Jun 2026
下方每个概率都在开赛前发布并锁定。本页面将每个概率与实际结果进行对比评分。
当日均值: Strong read
Mexico 2–0 South Africa was the outcome the model rated most likely (64.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.202, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
市场对结果赋予了更高的概率
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Mexico9Julián QuiñonesScored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.9Raúl JiménezScored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.South Africa7ModibaRegistered South Africa's only notable shot on target with a long-range effort that required a save from the Mexico goalkeeper.- 已评分锁定于 10 Jun2 – 1
- South Korea · 实际36.7%
- 平局26.6%
- Czech Republic36.7%
结论Within expectationsSouth Korea 2–1 Czech Republic was the outcome the model rated most likely (36.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.606, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
胜过市场对结果赋予了更高的概率
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
South Korea8Kim Seung-gyuMade several vital stops, including a crucial late save, proving instrumental in securing the win.8Hwang In-beomScored South Korea's equalising goal with a precise finish, initiating the comeback.8Oh Hyeon-gyuCame off the bench to score South Korea's winning goal, securing the comeback victory.Czech Republic8Czechia #7Opened the scoring for Czech Republic with a well-executed header from a set-piece.
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.