Group H · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Cape Verde press high and force the tempo. Uruguay's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward.
What decides it
Cape Verde press high (PPDA 17.2). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. The scoring threat is evenly split: Nuno da Costa (5.4%) and Darwin Núñez (5.5%).
Off the pitch
Bubista (6 years in charge of Cape Verde) vs Marcelo Bielsa (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Cape Verde just 10.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Cape Verde or Uruguay.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 21 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Cape Verde
Cape Verde come in at close to full strength.
Uruguay
Uruguay: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtGiorgian de Arrascaeta, the second-choice midfielder, is recovering from Muscle injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Availability runs in Cape Verde's favour here: Uruguay are managing a fitness concern over Giorgian de Arrascaeta, while Cape Verde's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Cape Verde minus Uruguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardS. Lopes CabralS. Lopes Cabral is booked.5'
- 20'Yellow cardR. Bentancur· TrippingR. Bentancur is booked — Tripping.
- GoalK. LeniniK. Lenini scores for Cape Verde.21'
- 44'GoalM. AraujoM. Araujo scores for Uruguay.
- 45'+6GoalA. Canobbio· M. AraujoA. Canobbio scores for Uruguay.
- SubstitutionT. Arcanjo· D. DuarteCape Verde change: D. Duarte.46'
- 58'Yellow cardM. Olivera· HoldingM. Olivera is booked — Holding.
- SubstitutionBenchimol· N. Da CostaCape Verde change: N. Da Costa.58'
- SubstitutionG. Rodrigues· H. VarelaCape Verde change: H. Varela.58'
- GoalH. VarelaH. Varela scores for Cape Verde.61'
- 68'VAR reviewM. AraujoVAR review under way.
- 70'SubstitutionM. Ugarte· N. de la CruzUruguay change: N. de la Cruz.
- 70'SubstitutionF. Vinas· D. NunezUruguay change: D. Nunez.
- SubstitutionK. Lenini· L. DuarteCape Verde change: L. Duarte.71'
- SubstitutionJ. Monteiro· Y. SemedoCape Verde change: Y. Semedo.80'
- 81'SubstitutionM. Araujo· B. RodriguezUruguay change: B. Rodriguez.
- Yellow cardD. Borges· FoulD. Borges is booked — Foul.90'+3
Player involvement
Cape Verde
Uruguay
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–119.6%
- 0–216.0%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–38.5%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.