Group H · Matchday 2
← 赛前预测Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Cape Verde win6.7%
- Draw23.2%
- Uruguay win70.1%
Analysis
The model rates Uruguay as clear favourites at 70.1%, with Cape Verde at 6.7% and the draw at 23.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 343 points in Uruguay's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group H, Uruguay are expected to advance (93.9%) while Cape Verde face a tighter path (25.7%) — this result could be decisive for Cape Verde's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Cape Verde (high press) meet Uruguay (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Cape Verde must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Nuno da Costa (P(scores) 5.5%) against Darwin Núñez (5.5%) — their impact could prove decisive. Uruguay play a more direct game while Cape Verde build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Cape Verde's Bubista (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Marcelo Bielsa (3.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 6.7%, a Cape Verde result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Cape Verde or Uruguay.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 2
Both teams are grappling with significant squad uncertainties, with several key players doubtful for the upcoming fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
赛后校准回顾免费开放。 比赛结束后, 预测与结果对照回顾将发布: 赛前概率与实际结果、Brier score、log loss, 以及最终 xG 与预测值对比, 发布于 回顾页面, 对所有人开放。
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Cape Verde v Uruguay plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.