Group H · Matchday 2

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Scheduled
Cape Verde
–:–
Uruguay

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Cape Verde win
    6.7%
  • Draw
    23.2%
  • Uruguay win
    70.1%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates Uruguay as clear favourites at 70.1%, with Cape Verde at 6.7% and the draw at 23.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 343 points in Uruguay's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group H, Uruguay are expected to advance (93.9%) while Cape Verde face a tighter path (25.7%) — this result could be decisive for Cape Verde's campaign.

Tactical matchup

Cape Verde (high press) meet Uruguay (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Cape Verde must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Nuno da Costa (P(scores) 5.5%) against Darwin Núñez (5.5%) — their impact could prove decisive. Uruguay play a more direct game while Cape Verde build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

Cape Verde's Bubista (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Marcelo Bielsa (3.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

At 6.7%, a Cape Verde result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.

Key numbers

6.7% / 23.2% / 70.1%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-343Elo differentialCape Verde 1549 vs Uruguay 1892
0.44 – 1.71Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-1 (19.5%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
29.5%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
5.5%P(goal) — Nuno da CostaHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Cape Verde or Uruguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 2

Both teams are grappling with significant squad uncertainties, with several key players doubtful for the upcoming fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Cape Verde v Uruguay plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.