Group H · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Cape Verde
2:2
Uruguay

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Live descriptive stats

Cape VerdeUruguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Cape Verde0.470.77+0.30
Uruguay1.592.28+0.69

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
7
16
Shots on target
2
2
Possession (%)
34%
66%
Corners
3
11
Fouls
4
8
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Cape Verde press high and force the tempo. Uruguay's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward.

What decides it

Cape Verde press high (PPDA 17.2). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. The scoring threat is evenly split: Nuno da Costa (5.4%) and Darwin Núñez (5.5%).

Off the pitch

Bubista (6 years in charge of Cape Verde) vs Marcelo Bielsa (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Cape Verde just 10.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Cape Verde or Uruguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 2
Date:
21 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Cape Verde

Cape Verde come in at close to full strength.

Uruguay

Uruguay: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtGiorgian de Arrascaeta, the second-choice midfielder, is recovering from Muscle injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Cape Verde's favour here: Uruguay are managing a fitness concern over Giorgian de Arrascaeta, while Cape Verde's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En directStatistiques descriptives et probabilité de victoire en direct (différée) · mise à jour toutes les ~30 secondes

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Cape Verde (above the line)Uruguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 21' · K. LeniniGoal, 44' · M. AraujoGoal, 45' · A. CanobbioGoal, 61' · H. Varela

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Cape Verde minus Uruguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Cape VerdeUruguay
  • Yellow cardS. Lopes CabralS. Lopes Cabral is booked.5'
  • 20'Yellow cardR. Bentancur· TrippingR. Bentancur is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalK. LeniniK. Lenini scores for Cape Verde.21'
  • 44'GoalM. AraujoM. Araujo scores for Uruguay.
  • 45'+6GoalA. Canobbio· M. AraujoA. Canobbio scores for Uruguay.
  • SubstitutionT. Arcanjo· D. DuarteCape Verde change: D. Duarte.46'
  • 58'Yellow cardM. Olivera· HoldingM. Olivera is booked — Holding.
  • SubstitutionBenchimol· N. Da CostaCape Verde change: N. Da Costa.58'
  • SubstitutionG. Rodrigues· H. VarelaCape Verde change: H. Varela.58'
  • GoalH. VarelaH. Varela scores for Cape Verde.61'
  • 68'VAR reviewM. AraujoVAR review under way.
  • 70'SubstitutionM. Ugarte· N. de la CruzUruguay change: N. de la Cruz.
  • 70'SubstitutionF. Vinas· D. NunezUruguay change: D. Nunez.
  • SubstitutionK. Lenini· L. DuarteCape Verde change: L. Duarte.71'
  • SubstitutionJ. Monteiro· Y. SemedoCape Verde change: Y. Semedo.80'
  • 81'SubstitutionM. Araujo· B. RodriguezUruguay change: B. Rodriguez.
  • Yellow cardD. Borges· FoulD. Borges is booked — Foul.90'+3

Player involvement

Cape Verde

K. Lenini21' Goal · 71' On
H. Varela58' Off · 61' Goal
S. Lopes Cabral5' Yellow card
D. Borges90'+3 Yellow card

Uruguay

AM. Araujo44' Goal · 45'+6 Assist · 81' On
A. Canobbio45'+6 Goal
R. Bentancur20' Yellow card
M. Olivera58' Yellow card
Modèle pré-matchFigé avant le coup d'envoi

Pre-match forecast

Cape Verde win
5.9%
Draw
25.8%
Uruguay win
68.3%
Cape Verde
0.47
expected
goals
Uruguay
1.59

La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–1
    19.6%
  • 0–2
    16.0%
  • 0–0
    13.3%
  • 1–1
    10.2%
  • 0–3
    8.5%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Comment fonctionne la probabilité en direct. La prévision d'avant-match publiée est figée au verrouillage des compositions (T-1h) et ne change plus après le coup d'envoi ; le bilan d'après-match évalue ce chiffre figé face au résultat. La probabilité de victoire en direct affichée pendant le match est le même modèle, relu selon le score et le temps restant. Elle se rafraîchit environ une fois par minute, est toujours différée, et reste une mesure descriptive de recherche : ni un produit de pari, ni un prix d'aucune sorte. Voir /docs/methodology/ pour le cadre complet.