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Compare two countries Pick any two of the 48 nations to see them side-by-side: tournament-winner probability, the chance to reach each knockout round, group standing, FIFA rank.
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onthepitch
A research surface for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Methodology
Forecasts come from a calibrated Ensemble Elo Dixon-Coles Hierarchical Poisson /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up. Tap any abbreviation in a data table for its definition.
How the forecasts score against results (Brier log-loss calibration scoreboard .
Built 14 Jul 14:01 UTC · Day 34 of the tournament · Methodology
Sports analytics and statistical research. Model outputs are probabilities, not recommendations. Past calibration does not guarantee future accuracy. This site does not promote or facilitate gambling. Terms .