预测与结果对照 · Group D · Matchday 1

United States vs Paraguay

2026-06-12

Post-match calibration

4 – 1

United States win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

United States win· realised
32.3%
Draw
29.4%
Paraguay win
38.3%

Brier score

0.693

Log loss

1.132

xG (final / predicted)

1.27 / 0.90 · United States

0.51 / 0.93 · Paraguay

P(realised outcome)

32.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Late goalG. Reyna (90'+8)

Own goalD. Bobadilla (7')

xG overperformanceUnited States scored 4 from 1.27 xG.

Key moments

7'⚽

Own goalOG

D. Bobadilla (United States)

28'📺

VAR review

F. Balogun (United States)

31'⚽

Goal

F. Balogun (United States)

C. Pulisic

45'+5⚽

Goal

F. Balogun (United States)

M. Tillman

73'⚽

Goal

Mauricio (Paraguay)

J. Enciso

90'+8⚽

GoalLate

G. Reyna (United States)

A. Freeman

Match statistics

UNIParaguay

65%

Possession

35%

Shots

On target

1.27

0.51

Corners

Fouls

Yellows

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (4–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#10–016.6%

#20–114.2%

#31–114.1%

#41–013.8%

#50–26.9%

Team performance

United StatesA-

Passing

In line5/10

Pressing / defence

In line5/10

Set pieces

In line5/10

Chance creation

Above profile9/10

Shot quality

Above profile9/10

Cohesion

In line5/10

Individual quality

Above profile9/10

The team appears to be in strong attacking form, converting chances effectively and maintaining offensive pressure.

ParaguayF

Passing

Below profile4/10

Pressing / defence

Below profile2/10

Set pieces

In line5/10

Chance creation

Below profile3/10

Shot quality

In line6/10

Cohesion

Below profile3/10

Individual quality

Below profile2/10

Paraguay's current form appears poor, particularly in defensive organisation and containing opposition attacks.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

United States

Folarin Balogun44'–117'

Scored two crucial goals for the USA, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong offensive presence.

3goals

▼

Match timeline

44'Folarin Balogun's goal disallowed for offside

55'Folarin Balogun scores

117'Folarin Balogun scores

Gio Reyna

Contributed a well-placed goal for the USA, adding to their commanding lead.

Weston McKennie

Showed good attacking intent with a notable shot on goal that tested the opposition goalkeeper.

1shots1on target

▼

Match timeline

Paraguay

Damian Bobadilla

Scored an own goal that put the USA ahead, representing a costly error for his team.

Match observations

The event commenced with an elaborate pre-game ceremony, featuring national anthems and a fireworks display, which generated a vibrant atmosphere.
The crowd was highly engaged and enthusiastic, both within the stadium and in external viewing locations, reacting with great excitement to the goals.
The USA team showcased effective offensive movements, leading to several successful attempts on goal during the compilation.

← 赛前预测实时追踪 →