For all 314 matches in the six StatsBomb open-data tournaments (WC 2018 / 2022, Euro 2020 / 2024, Copa América 2024, AFCON 2023) it pulls every goal with its match-minute and scoring team, reconstructs the running scoreline, and treats the match as an inhomogeneous Poisson process. Between consecutive goals the score state is constant, so each segment contributes duration team-minutes of exposure in a state, and the goal that ends a segment is one event credited to the scoring team's state…
Research note
Within-match game-state: the corpus is ample, the confounding is the problem
Status: Feasibility probe complete. The design note's stated risk was wrong; a different risk is binding. Qualified result — read the decision gate at the bottomTopline + full note · 1,223 words
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Within-match game-state: the corpus is ample, the confounding is the problem runs 1,223 words. The Standard Pass unlocks every research note in full, plus the complete forecast and per-team and per-player ratings — valid through the tournament.
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