Research note

Can we model the game *script*? Design for a within-match game-state layer

Status: Design only. No code written, no fit run, no decision takenTopline + full note · 1,535 words

Topline

Our forecasting stack — ClubElo / FIFA-Elo + Dixon-Coles + Hierarchical Poisson, plus the small shipped composite-α and GK-α offsets — predicts a match from each team's long-run strength. It has no representation of how a single game unfolds once it kicks off. Every minute of a match is exchangeable to it; a 1–0 lead at the 6th minute and a 1–0 lead at the 85th carry identical information.

The 2025-26 Champions League final was a clean illustration of what that misses. Our pre-match basel…

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