Research note

Do some playing styles beat others? (Not enough to measure)

Status: Not shipped. Both acceptance gates failed. See decision gate at the bottomBacktest date: 24 May 2026Topline + full note · 1,715 words

Topline

The §2.7 Track B model (canonical reference: scripts/fit_style_matchup.py) posits that historical international match results carry a small, per-style-pair residual that DC and HP — which average over style at the team level — do not absorb. Specifically, for each (home_style, away_style) cell in an 8×8 grid of canonical tactical-fingerprint labels, fit a pair of log-rate offsets (δ_home, δ_away) that nudge each side's Poisson rate after the goal-process baseline.

Model:

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