Research note

Letting team ratings drift over time (didn't improve predictions)

Status: Not shipped. See decision gate at the bottomBacktest date: 27 May 2026Topline + full note · 1,566 words

Topline

Per the design note (variant a, "EMA on (α_t, β_t)"): each team's attack/defence parameters should EVOLVE through time rather than absorb every era's matches into a single stationary compromise. Refit DC at K snapshot timestamps (= the 8 quarterly walk cutoffs), blend each team's parameters across snapshots via an exponential moving average with tunable half-life h_param, and check whether the blended parameter trajectory beats the stationary baseline on walk-forward Brier / ECE.

Reasoning:

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