Sports-science literature reports a measurable effect of recovery time on football performance: better-rested teams score slightly more goals than fatigued ones. The expected magnitude is small but consistent across studies (Mohr et al. 2012; Dellal et al. 2013; FIFA technical reports on tournament congestion).
The Dixon-Coles fit on ~49k international matches absorbs this implicitly by averaging across rest states. The question this note answers is: does a small, transparent **predict-time mul…