Research note

Does a player-form (momentum) offset improve match forecasts? (No)

Status: Not shipped. Negative result (2026-05-29). A point-in-timeBacktest date: 29 May 2026Topline + full note · 1,189 words

Topline

The current-form score (scripts/build_player_form.py) measures momentum — a player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline — deliberately orthogonal to the composite rating (which is the level). The claim: a team's XI form, differenced between the two sides, carries short-term predictive signal the level-based composite offset misses, so Δ = α·(form_home − form_away) on the DC + HP Poisson log-rates should lower Brier without hurting calibration.

**Verdict: it…

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