Football economics literature (Brams & Ismail 2018; Apesteguia & Palacios-Huerta 2010 on tournament-incentive distortions) reports that match outcomes in the final round of group-stage tournaments deviate from baseline expectations when the two sides have asymmetric or absent qualification incentives. The textbook cases:
- Dead rubbers (both teams already through, or both already eliminated) — coaches rotate, intensity drops, outcomes get noisier than the model's calibrated predictions. - *…