Research note

Anytime-scorer `start_prob` v2 — predicted-XI layer (default-off)

Status: Not shipped as default. Backtest complete (2026-05-27): predicted-XI does not lift Brier or log-loss over the legacy chain. Flag remains available for opt-in but the default stays `timeline`. See verdict belowBacktest date: 27 May 2026Topline + full note · 1,772 words

Topline

Model 5 (scripts/build_anytime_scorer.py) produces P(player scores ≥ 1 across the WC tournament). The headline depends on E[minutes], which is derived from start_prob (the per-match starter likelihood). The v1 chain was:

  1. Timeline — recency-weighted appearances in data/wc2026/intl_career_timeline.csv (apps in years ≥ 2024 ÷ team's recent match count). 2. Caps proxy (fallback) — career caps ÷ team's match count in the last 2 years.

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