Medido em público

17 Jun 2026

Cada probabilidade abaixo foi publicada antes do início e travada. Esta página avalia cada uma em relação ao que realmente aconteceu.

4 de 4 jogos avaliados
1
Acertou em cheio
Alta confiança, resultado certo
1
Boa leitura
Deu a maior probabilidade ao que aconteceu
1
Esperado
O resultado ficou dentro da faixa
1
Surpresa
O modelo não previu isso

Média do dia: Within expectations

  • PortugalvsDR Congo
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Portugal75.1%
    • Empate · realizado19.3%
    • DR Congo5.6%
    Veredito
    Surprise result

    Portugal 1–1 DR Congo was an outcome the model rated at 19.3% (19.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.220, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Supera os mercadosDeu mais probabilidade ao resultado

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Portugal
    8João NevesCMScored the opening goal for Portugal with a well-placed header, providing an early lead.
    7Nuno MendesLBMade a dangerous attacking run and had a shot on target, showing good offensive contribution from defense.
    7ConceiçãoRWProvided a good pass that created a clear scoring opportunity for Ronaldo.
    DR Congo
    8WissaSTScored the crucial equalizer for Congo DR just before half-time and showed attacking threat with another shot.
    7BakambuSTCreated a significant chance by hitting the post, demonstrating his attacking threat.
    5MbembaCBReceived a yellow card for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
  • UzbekistanvsColombia
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    1 – 3
    • Uzbekistan9.5%
    • Empate23.2%
    • Colombia · realizado67.4%
    Veredito
    Nailed it

    Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia was the outcome the model rated most likely (67.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.169, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Os mercados deram mais probabilidade ao resultado

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Uzbekistan
    7Utkir YusupovGKDespite conceding three goals, he made several crucial saves that kept Uzbekistan in the game for extended periods.
    Colombia
    9Luis DíazLWDelivered a man-of-the-match performance, constantly threatening the opposition goal and scoring a crucial goal.
    8Daniel MuñozRBScored a crucial opening goal with a well-taken volley, demonstrating excellent attacking instincts from his defensive role.
    7Jaminton CampazSTMade an immediate impact by scoring a late goal to seal the victory after coming on as a substitute.
  • EnglandvsCroatia
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    4 – 2
    • England · realizado50.4%
    • Empate26.1%
    • Croatia23.5%
    Veredito
    Strong read

    England 4–2 Croatia was the outcome the model rated most likely (50.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.370, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Os mercados deram mais probabilidade ao resultado

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    England
    8Harry KaneSTScored two crucial goals, including a penalty and a header, demonstrating his clinical finishing.
    7Jude BellinghamCMScored England's third goal early in the second half, putting them ahead for good.
    7Marcus RashfordLWScored England's fourth goal, extending their lead and securing the victory.
    Croatia
    7BaturinaCMScored Croatia's first equalizer with a powerful and well-struck shot.
    7MusaSTScored Croatia's second equalizer just before half-time, keeping his team in the game.
    7Dominik LivakovicGKMade several crucial saves, including a penalty stop and a double save, despite his team conceding four goals.
  • GhanavsPanama
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    1 – 0
    • Ghana · realizado27.5%
    • Empate27.9%
    • Panama44.6%
    Veredito
    Within expectations

    Ghana 1–0 Panama was an outcome the model rated at 27.5% (27.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.801, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Os mercados deram mais probabilidade ao resultado

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Ghana
    9Lawrence Ati-ZigiGKHis numerous crucial saves throughout the match, especially early on and at the very end, were instrumental in securing the clean sheet and the victory for Ghana.
    8Antoine SemenyoSTSemenyo scored the decisive late goal with a composed finish after a good dribble, proving to be Ghana's key attacking threat.
    7Jordan AyewSTAyew provided an attacking presence for Ghana, having a shot on target and showing good predatory instincts in the box.
    Panama
    6Cristian MartínezCMMartínez was a persistent attacking threat for Panama, creating several chances and having multiple shots, but ultimately lacked the precision to convert.
    5Jiovany RamosCBRamos had a moment of individual attacking endeavor with a shot from outside the box, but it failed to hit the target.
    5Ismael DíazSTDíaz had a final effort on target in injury time that was saved, almost snatching a late equalizer for Panama.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 17 Jun 2026 · onthepitch